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The Technological Singularity is the hypothesized creation, usually via AI or Brain-computer Interfaces , of Smarter -than-human entities who rapidly accelerate Technological Progress beyond the capability of Human Beings to participate meaningfully in said progress. Futurists have varying opinions regarding the timing and consequences of such an event. I. J. Good first explored the idea of an "intelligence explosion", arguing that machines surpassing human intellect should be capable of Recursively augmenting their own mental abilities until they vastly exceed those of their creators. Vernor Vinge later popularized the ''Singularity'' in the 1980s with lectures, essays, and science fiction. More recently, some AI researchers have voiced concern over the ''Singularity's'' potential dangers. Some futurists, such as Ray Kurzweil , consider it part of a long-term pattern of Accelerating Change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the Integrated Circuit . Critics of this interpretation consider it an example of Static Analysis . The ''Singularity'' has also been featured prominently in science fiction works by a plethora of authors. INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION In 1965, Statistician I. J. Good wrote: :—Good (1965). Mathematician and author Vernor Vinge greatly popularized Good’s notion of an intelligence explosion in the 1980s, calling the creation of the first ultraintelligent machine ''the Singularity''. Vinge first addressed the topic in print in the January 1983 issue of ''Omni'' Magazine . He later collected his thoughts in the 1993 essay "The Coming ''Technological Singularity''," which contains the oft-quoted statement "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended." Vinge clarifies his estimate of the time scales involved, adding, "I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030." Vinge writes that superhuman intelligences, however created, will be even more able to enhance their own minds faster than the humans that created them. “When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress,” Vinge writes, “that progress will be much more rapid.” This feedback loop of self-improving intelligence, he predicts, will cause large amounts of technological progress within a short period of time. Potential dangers Some speculate superhuman intelligences may have goals inconsistent with human survival and prosperity. AI researcher Hugo De Garis suggests AIs may simply eliminate the human race, and humans would be powerless to stop them. Other oft-cited dangers include those commonly associated with Molecular Nanotechnology and Genetic Engineering . These threats are major issues for both ''Singularity'' advocates and critics, and were the subject of a ''Wired'' Magazine article by Bill Joy , " Why The Future Doesn't Need Us " (2000). In a 2002 essay on human extinction scenarios, Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom listed superintelligence as a possible cause: :—Bostrom (2002). Some AI researchers have made efforts to diminish what they view as potential dangers associated with the ''Singularity''. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence is a nonprofit research institute for the study and advancement of Friendly Artificial Intelligence , a method proposed by SIAI research fellow Eliezer Yudkowsky for ensuring the stability and safety of AIs that experience Good's "intelligence explosion". AI researcher Bill Hibbard also addresses issues of AI safety and morality in his book '' Super-Intelligent Machines ''. Many Singularitarians consider nanotechnology to be one of the greatest dangers facing humanity. For this reason, they often believe Seed AI should precede nanotechnology. Others, such as the Foresight Institute , advocate efforts to create molecular nanotechnology, claiming nanotechnology can be made safe for pre-Singularity use or can expedite the arrival of a beneficial Singularity. ACCELERATING CHANGE s, a trend of exponential growth extends from Integrated Circuits to earlier Transistor s, Vacuum Tube s, Relay s and Electromechanical computers.]] See Also: Accelerating change Some Singularity proponents argue its inevitability through extrapolation of past trends, especially those pertaining to shortening gaps between improvements to technology. In one of the first uses of the term ''singularity'' in the context of technological progress, Stanislaw Ulam cites accelerating change: :—Ulam (1958), referring to a conversation with John Von Neumann . In ''Mindsteps to the Cosmos'' (HarperCollins, August 1983), Gerald S. Hawkins writes that "mindsteps", dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views, are accelerating in frequency as quantified in his mindstep equation. He cites the inventions of writing, mathematics, and the computer as examples of such changes. Ray Kurzweil 's analysis of History concludes that technological progress follows a pattern of Exponential Growth , following what he calls ''The Law of Accelerating Returns''. He generalizes Moore's Law , which describes geometric growth in integrated semiconductor complexity, to include technologies from far before the integrated circuit. Whenever technology approaches a barrier, Kurzweil writes, new technologies will cross it. He predicts Paradigm Shift s will become increasingly common, leading to “technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history” (Kurzweil 2001). Kurzweil believes the Singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, setting the date at 2045 (Kurzweil 2005). His predictions differ from Vinge’s in that he predicts a gradual ascent to the Singularity, rather than Vinge’s rapidly self-improving superhuman intelligence. Criticism of accelerating change In "The Progress of Computing", William Nordhaus argues that prior to 1940 , computers followed the much slower growth of a traditional industrial economy, thus rejecting extrapolations of Moore's Law to 19th Century computers. Schmidhuber (2006) suggests differences in memory of recent and distant events create an illusion of accelerating change, and that such phenomena may be responsible for past apocalyptic predictions. Luddite s opposed the Industrial Revolution out of concern for its effects on Employment , and some oppose the Singularity on the same grounds. After the industrial revolution, however, Child Labor and labor of the over-aged declined dramatically. Henry Hazlitt argues that only drops in Voluntary Employment , not Absolute Employment , should be of concern. POPULAR CULTURE In addition to the Vernor Vinge stories that pioneered Singularity ideas, several other science fiction authors have written stories that involve the Singularity as a central theme. Notable authors include William Gibson , Charles Stross , Karl Schroeder , Greg Egan , David Brin , Iain M. Banks , Neal Stephenson , Tony Ballantyne , Bruce Sterling , Dan Simmons , Damien Broderick , Fredric Brown , Jacek Dukaj , Nagaru Tanigawa and Cory Doctorow . Ken MacLeod describes the Singularity as “the Rapture for Nerd s” in his 1998 novel '' The Cassini Division ''. Singularity themes are common in Cyberpunk novels, such as the recursively self-improving AI Wintermute in William Gibson ’s novel '' Neuromancer ''. A 1994 novel published on Kuro5hin called '' The Metamorphosis Of Prime Intellect '' depicts life after an AI-initiated Singularity. A more Dystopia n version is Harlan Ellison ’s short story " I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream ". Yet more examples are ''Accelerando'' by Charles Stross, and Warren Ellis ’ ongoing Comic Book series '' Newuniversal ''. '' Puppets All '' by James F. Milne explores the emotional and moral problems approaching Singularity. In the popular British science fiction program Doctor Who , Cybermen are a race of adapted humanoids which seek to enhance all other humanoids similarly. Popular movies in which computers become intelligent and overpower the human race include '''', the '' Terminator '' series, '' I Robot '' and '' The Matrix ''. See also List Of Fictional Computers . Isaac Asimov expressed ideas similar to a post-Kurzweilian Singularity in his short story " The Last Question ". Asimov's future envisions a reality where a combination of Strong Artificial Intelligence and Post-human s consume the cosmos, during a time Kurzweil describes as when "the universe wakes up", the last of his six stages of cosmic evolution as described in '' The Singularity Is Near ''. Post-human entities throughout various time periods of the story inquire of the artificial intelligence within the story as to how Entropy Death will be avoided. The AI responds that it lacks sufficient information to come to a conclusion, until the end of the story when the AI does indeed arrive at a solution, and demonstrates it by re-creating the universe, in godlike speech and fashion, from scratch. Notably, it does so in order to fulfill its Duty to answer the humans' question. St. Edward's University chemist Eamonn Healy provides his own take on the Singularity concept in the film '' Waking Life ''. He describes the acceleration of evolution by breaking it down into “two billion years for life, six million years for the hominid, a hundred-thousand years for mankind as we know it” then describes the acceleration of human cultural evolution as being ten thousand years for agriculture, four hundred years for the scientific revolution, and one hundred fifty years for the industrial revolution. Information is emphasized as providing the basis for the new evolutionary paradigm, with artificial intelligence its culmination. He concludes we will eventually create “neohumans” which will usurp humanity’s present role in scientific and technological progress and allow the exponential trend of accelerating change to continue past the limits of human ability. In his book ''The Artilect War'', Hugo De Garis predicts a coming conflict between supporters of the creation of Artificial Intellect s (or artilects), whom he refers to as "cosmists", and those who oppose the idea, who he refers to as "terrans". De Garis envisions a coming battle between these groups over the creation of artilects as being the last great struggle mankind will face before the Singularity. Neal Asher 's '' Gridlinked '' series features a future where humans living in the Polity are governed by AIs and while some are resentful, most believe that they are far better governors than any human. In the fourth novel, '' Polity Agent '', it is mentioned that the singularity is far overdue yet most AIs have decided not to partake in it for reasons that only they know. SEE ALSO
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