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A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true. Although examples of such Prophecies can be found in human literature as far back as Ancient Greece and Ancient India , it is 20th-century Sociologist Robert K. Merton who is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalizing its structure and consequences. In his book ''Social Theory and Social Structure'', Merton gives as a feature of the self-fulfilling prophecy: In other words, a false prophetic statement — a prophecy declared as truth when it is not — may sufficiently influence people, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the false prophecy. HISTORY OF THE CONCEPT Robert K. Merton's concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy stems from the Thomas Theorem , which states that: If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences. According to Thomas, people do not react only to the situations they are in, but also, and often primarily, to the way they perceive the situations and to the meaning they assign to these situations. Therefore, their behavior is determined in part by their perception and the meaning they ascribe to the situations they are in, rather than by the situations themselves. Once a person convinces themselves that a situation really has a certain meaning, regardless of whether it actually does, they will take very real actions in consequence. Merton took the concept a step further and applied it to recent social phenomena. In his book ''Social Theory and Social Structure'', he conceives of the fictional Bank of Cartwright Millingville. It is a typical bank, and Millingville has run it honestly and quite properly. As a result, like all banks, it has some Liquid Assets (cash), but most of its assets are invested in various ventures. Then one day, a large number of customers come to the bank at once —the exact reason is never made clear. Customers, seeing so many people at the bank, begin to worry. False rumors spread that something is wrong with the bank and more customers Rush To The Bank to try to get some of their money out while they still can. The number of customers at the bank increases, as does their annoyance and excitement, which in turn fuels the false rumors of the bank's Insolvency and upcoming Bankruptcy , causing more customers to come and try to withdraw their money. At the beginning of the day — the last one for Millingville's bank — the bank was not insolvent. But the rumor of insolvency caused a sudden demand of withdrawal of too many customers, which could not be answered, causing the bank to become insolvent and declare bankruptcy. Merton concludes this example with the following analysis: ''The parable tells us that public definitions of a situation (prophecies or predictions) become an integral part of the situation and thus affect subsequent developments, This is peculiar to human affairs. It is not found in the world of nature, untouched by human hands. Predictions of the return of Halley’s Comet do not influence its orbit. But the rumored insolvency of Millingville’s bank did affect the actual outcome. The prophecy of collapse led to its own fulfillment.'' Merton concluded that the only way to break the cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy is by redefining the propositions on which its false assumptions are originally based. Philosopher Karl Popper called the phenomenon the Oedipus effect. ''"One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty Historicism was the influence of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the "Oedipus effect", because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which led to the fulfillment of its prophecy. . . . For a time I thought that the existence of the Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural sciences. But in biology, too — even in molecular biology — expectations often play a role in bringing about what has been expected"''Karl Popper, ''Unended Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography'', 1976). Applications Examples abound in studies of Cognitive Dissonance Theory and the related Self-perception Theory ; people will often change their Attitude s to come into line with what they profess publicly. In the US the concept was broadly and consistently applied in the field of public education reform, following the " War On Poverty ". T. Brameld noted "In simplest terms, education already projects and thereby reinforces whatever habits of personal and cultural life are considered to be acceptable and dominant"T. Brameld "Education as self-fulfilling propecy'' ''Phi Beta Kappan'' September 1972 p. 9, quoted by Wilkins 1976:176. The effects of teacher attitudes, beliefs and values, affecting their expectations have been tested repeatedly.William E. Wilkins, "The Concept of a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy" ''Sociology of Education'' 49.2 (April 1976, pp. 175-183) The phenomenon of the "inevitability of war" is a self-fulfilling prophecy that has received considerable study.G. Allport, "Thev role of expectancy" in H. Cantrill, ''The Tensions That Cause Wars'' (Urbana:University of Illinois) 1950, pp43-78. Other specific examples discussed in Psychology include:
LITERATURE, MEDIA, AND THE ARTS In literature, self-fulfilling prophecies are often used as Plot Device s. They have been used in stories for millennia, but have gained a lot of popularity recently in the Science Fiction genre. They are typically used ironically, with the prophesied events coming to pass due to the actions of one trying to prevent the prophecy. They are also sometimes used as comic relief. Classic Many myths, legends and fairy tales make use of this motif as a central element of narratives that are designed to illustrate sets the train of events in motion. Greek The best known example from Greek legend is that of Oedipus . Warned that his child would one day kill him, Laius abandoned his newborn son Oedipus to die, but Oedipus was found and raised by others, and thus in ignorance of his true origins. When he grew up, Oedipus was warned that he would kill his father and marry his mother. Believing his foster parents were his real parents, he left his home and traveled Greece, eventually reaching the city where his biological parents lived. There, he got into a fight with a stranger, his father, and killed him, and married his widow, Oedipus's mother. This motif is repeated in other Greek legends, as in Telephus , a son of Hercules prophesied to kill his uncle. His grandfather had him abandoned, which led to his being raised in ignorance of his birth. He met his uncle and his uncle's men, who taunted him with this ignorance, and in anger, he killed his uncle. The story of Zeus and Chronos is unusual in that Zeus is aware of the prophecy; usually the prophesied child commits the predicted acts in ignorance, whereas Zeus deliberately sets out to overthrow his father in fulfillment of the prophecy. Zeus is also able to forestall similar prophecies for himself. When he hears that Metis 's second child will be a son who will destroy him, he tricks and swallows her, preventing her from ever conceiving this son. When he is wooing Thetis , he is warned (by different oracles in different legends) that her son will be greater than his father, and so marries her off to the mortal Peleus ; Peleus's son Achilles then proves to be greater than his father. Although the legend of Perseus opens with the prophecy that he will kill his grandfather Acrisius , and his abandonment with his mother Danae , the prophecy is only self-fulfilling in some variants. In some, he accidentally spears his grandfather at a competition — an act that could have happened regardless of Acrisius 's response to the prophecy. In other variants, his presence at the games is explained by his hearing of the prophecy, so that his attempt to evade it does cause the prophecy to be fulfilled. In still others, Acrisius is one of the wedding guests when Polydectes tried to force Danae to marry him, and when Perseus turns them to stone with the Gorgon's head; as Polydectes fell in love with Danae because Acrisius abandoned her at sea, and Perseus killed the Gorgon as a consequence of Polydectes's attempt to get rid of Danae's son so that he could marry her, the prophecy fulfilled itself in these variants. Indian In the story of Krishna in the epic '' Mahabharata '', the ruler of the Mathura kingdom, Kansha , afraid of a prophecy that predicted his death at the hands of his sister Devaki 's son, had her cast into prison where he planned to kill all of her children at birth. After killing the first six children, and Devaki's apparent miscarriage of the seventh, Krishna (the eighth son) took birth. As his life was in danger he was smuggled out to be raised by his foster parents Yashoda and Nanda in the village of Gokul . Years later, Kansha learnt about the child's escape and kept sending various demons to put an end to him. The demons were defeated at the hands of Krishna and his brother Balarama . Krishna as a young man returned to Mathura to overthrow his uncle, and Kansha was eventually killed by his nephew Krishna. It was due to Kansha's attempts to prevent the prophecy that led to it coming true, hence the self-fulfilling prophecy came true. Roman The story of Romulus And Remus is another example. According to legend, a man overthrew his brother, the king. He then ordered that his two nephews, Romulus and Remus, be drowned, fearing that they would someday kill him like he did to his brother. The boys were placed in a basket and thrown in the Tiber River. A female wolf found the babies and raised them. Later, a shepherd found the twins and named them Romulus and Remus. As teenagers, they found out who they were. They killed their uncle, fulfilling the prophecy. Fairy tales Many fairy tales, such as '' The Devil With The Three Golden Hairs '', '' The Fish And The Ring '', '' The Story Of Three Wonderful Beggars '', or '' The King Who Would Be Stronger Than Fate '', revolve about a prophecy that a poor boy will marry a rich girl (or, less frequently, a poor girl a rich boy).Stith Thompson, ''The Folktale'', p 139, University of California Press, Berkeley Los Angeles London, 1977 This is story type 930 in the Aarne-Thompson classification scheme. The girl's father's efforts to prevent it are the reason why the boy ends up marrying her. Another fairy tale occurs with older children. In '''', the father forces his daughter to tell him her dream: that her father would hold an ewer for her to wash her hands in. In all such tales, the father takes the child's response as evidence of ill-will and drives the child off; this allows the child to change so that the father will not recognize his own offspring later and so offer to act as the child's servant. In some variants of '' Sleeping Beauty '', the sleep is not brought about by a curse, but a prophecy that she will be endangered by flax (or hemp) results in the royal order to remove all the flax or hemp from the castle, resulting in her ignorance of the danger and her curiosity. English Shakespeare's Macbeth is another classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The three witches give Macbeth a prophecy that Macbeth will eventually become king, but the offspring of his best friend will rule instead of his afterwards. Macbeth tries to make the first half true while trying to keep his bloodline on the throne instead of his friend's. Spurred by the prophecy, he kills the king and his friend, something he never would have done before. In the end, the evil actions he committed to avoid his succession by another's bloodline get him killed in a revolution. Modern Movies
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Perception is an important element of this theory. Research conducted at the University of Kansas found a link between expectations and achievement in college. Students who wanted to complete college and believed they were capable of doing so earned higher grades and were less likely to drop out. In fact, aspirations combined with expectations predicted achievement better than standardized test scores. This somewhat mysterious connection between what you expect in life and what you actually achieve is sometimes referred to as the "Self-fulfilling Prophecy": If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. REAL-LIFE EXAMPLES In January 1940, Black nationalist Marcus Garvey suffered a Stroke . Although he survived it, an Obituary of Garvey was Erroneously Published in the '' Chicago Defender '', describing him as "broke, alone and unpopular". Garvey was so shocked to read it that he suffered a second stroke and died — thus fulfilling the obituary. SEE ALSO
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