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PAM was to be a "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of Futures Contract s based on possible political developments in several Middle East ern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down based on reliable information. One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the University Of Iowa , which has allegedly proven more accurate in predicting the outcomes of U.S. Election s than either Opinion Poll s or political Pundit s. PAM was also inspired by the work of George Mason University Economist Robin Hanson . At a announced the cancellation of PAM, and by the end of the week John Poindexter , head of the DARPA unit responsible for developing it, had offered his resignation. On June 11, 2007, Popular Science launched a similar program, known as the Popsci Predictions Exchange. There are now commercial policy analysis markets, such as InTrade , which offers futures on events such as the capture of Osama bin Laden, the U.S. Presidential Election, and the bombing of Iran. NOTES SEE ALSO
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