| Arizona 8th Congressional District Election, 2006 |
Article Index for Arizona |
Shopping 8th |
Shopping Congressional |
Website Links For Arizona |
Information AboutArizona 8th Congressional District Election, 2006 |
| CATEGORIES ABOUT ARIZONA 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ELECTION, 2006 | |
| united states house of representatives elections by state | |
| arizona 8 2006 | |
| arizona elections, 2006 | |
| arizona 8 | |
|
The Arizona 8th congressional district election, 2006 was an Election for the United States House Of Representatives for the open seat of incumbent Jim Kolbe (R), who was not running for re-election. The primary was held on September 12 , 2006 , and the two major party winners were Republican Randy Graf , a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination in 2004, and former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords . Libertarian Dave Nolan , who was uncontested in the primary, was also in the November 7 , 2006 general election. Graf was considered too conservative for the district: Kolbe withheld his endoresement, and towards the end of the election the National GOP pulled their support. By election time, most non-partisan analyses considered this race the most likely district to switch hands, which it did, as Giffords won a decisive victory, 54% to 42%. CANDIDATES Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Independent
Write-In
PRIMARY CAMPAIGN Republican Incumbent Republican, for two decades, often by wide margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a socially conservative stronghold. Randy Graf , the primary winner, left a leadership position in the state House in 2004 to challenge Kolbe in the Republican primary. Graf won 40 percent of the vote and has campaigned almost full time since.1. A supporter of the Minuteman Project , Graf campaigned on a pledge to ensure that illegal immigrants have no path to citizenship and that the border will be further secured. 2 Graf previously sponsored a bill (which did not pass) to allow patrons carry guns into bars and restaurants. The GOP establishment, however, considered Graf as too conservative for a district that leans Republican but gave President Bush a very modest 53 percent of its votes in 2004, and tried to rally moderates around a former Kolbe campaign manager, Steve Huffman. 3. Unfortunately for Huffman, another moderate candidate, former state Republican Party Chairman Mike Hellon, was also running, and they split the moderate vote. Huffman got a boost when the national GOP took the rare step of endorsing and supporting Huffman, putting $250,000 into the race. The other GOP candidates criticized the move as unfair. In the meantime, the national Democratic party jumped in and spent nearly $200,000, a large part of that for advertisements critical of Huffman in an effort to help Graf's candidacy. But then other troubles developed. As CQPolitics described: "There were allegations that his campaign treasurer, local real estate broker William Arnold, had stalked Hellon’s ex-wife, state Sen. Toni Hellon. Arnold quit as treasurer after Hellon obtained a restraining order against him, and Huffman’s campaign said it had no involvement in Arnold’s actions. But the flap shadowing Huffman expanded in the final days of campaigning when it was discovered the owner of the Web site used to post pictures of Toni Hellon also owned Huffman’s campaign site. The alternative ''Tucson Weekly'' withdrew its support of Huffman based on the emerging evidence and the campaign’s refusal to answer any question regarding the incident." Democratic The Democratic campaign was mild in comparison to the GOP campaign. Gabrielle Giffords , who was former State Senator, resigned from the Arizona Legislature just eight days after Kolbe's announcement, in order to run for his seat. She quickly established herself as the front-runner, largely on the basis of her legislative record. She also gained some beneficial publicity when it was revealed that she is engaged to a space shuttle astronaut. . Her only serious competition was longtime Tucson television newscaster Patty Weiss. Election results GOP Total 64,076 votes cast State of Arizona Official Canvass , 2006 Primary Election, September 12 , 2006 Democratic Total 61,409 votes cast State of Arizona Official Canvass , 2006 Primary Election, September 12 , 2006 Libertarian
GENERAL ELECTION Campaign Graf's campaign got off to a rough start in mid-September when outgoing Republican incumbent Jim Kolbe withheld his endorsement, citing "profound and fundamental differences" between their views. 45. The ''Arizona Republic'' wrote that a "victory by Graf would in effect repudiate much of Kolbe's work on what has come to be known as 'comprehensive' immigration reform. In contrast with 'enforcement only,' Kolbe’s plan would create a guest-worker program and an opportunity for undocumented residents to become citizens eventually." In Mid-August ''CQPolitics'' changed their rating of this race from Leans Republican to ''No Clear Favorite'' 6 By late September, things were looking worse for Graf. The ''Cook Political Report'' changed their rating: from "Toss Up" to Leans Democractic. 7, and the national party canceled about $1 million in advertising support. 8. Two days later, in what was seen as a diminished level of national influence and interest in what had long been considered a competitive race, the national Democratic party also pulled their financial support. 9. Polls On September 20 , 2006 Gabrielle Giffords' campaign released an internal poll that showed her leading Republican candidate Randy Graf by 19 percentage points 10. The poll showed Giffords with 54% of the vote and Graf with 35%. The poll was based on responses from 500 likely general election voters and had a +/-4% margin of error. Results from a second poll conducted during the same time period confirmed a Giffords lead while suggesting a slightly tighter race11. This independent poll, conducted by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence, showed Giffords with a 12 point lead (Giffords Graf [36 , +/-4% MoE). On October 4 , Zogby released a poll showing Giffords with a 45-37 percent lead. 12 Polling Results Total 211,023 votes cast {Link without Title} U.S. House, Arizona District 8 (Open)
REFERENCES EXTERNAL LINKS |
|
|