Political Status Of Taiwan

The controversy regarding the political status of Taiwan hinges on whether Taiwan , including the Pescadores (Penghu), should remain the effective territory of the Republic Of China (ROC), become Unified with the territories now governed by the People's Republic Of China (PRC), or become the Republic Of Taiwan . The controversy over the '''political status of the Republic of China''' hinges on whether its existence as a State is legitimate and recognized.

Currently, Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen (Quemoy), Matsu and some other minor islands effectively make up the jurisdiction of the State known as the Republic of China. The ROC ruled Mainland China , and claimed sovereignty over Outer Mongolia and Tannu Uriankhai (part of which is present day Tuva ) before losing the Chinese Civil War and relocation of its government to Taipei in December 1949.

Since the ROC Lost Its United Nations Seat in 1971 ( Replaced by the PRC), most sovereign states have switched their diplomatic recognition to the PRC, recognizing or acknowledging the PRC to be the sole legitimate representative of all China. As of June 2007, the ROC maintains official diplomatic relations with 24 sovereign states,¹ although ''de facto'' relations are maintained with nearly all others. Agencies such as the Taipei Economic And Cultural Representative Office and American Institute In Taiwan operate as ''de facto'' embassies with ambiguous diplomatic status.

The ROC government has in the past considered itself to be the sole legitimate government over , Chinese Reunification , and Cross-Strait Relations '')

In addition, the situation can be confusing because of the different parties and the effort by many groups to deal with the controversy through a '' sovereign state. The status quo is accepted in large part because it does not define the legal status or future status of Taiwan, leaving each group to interpret the situation in a way that is politically acceptable to its members. At the same time, a policy of status quo has been criticized as being dangerous precisely because different sides have different interpretations of what the status quo is, leading to the possibility of war through Brinkmanship or miscalculation.

BACKGROUND

See Also: History of Taiwan

Some claim that the Kingdom Of Tungning , lasting from 1661 to 1683 , was the first Han Chinese Government to rule Taiwan . Many feel Chinese dynasties administered the island long before this. From 1683 , the Qing Dynasty ruled Taiwan as a Prefecture and in 1875 divided the island into two prefectures. In 1887 the island was made into a separate Chinese Province to speed up development in this region. In the aftermath of the First Sino-Japanese War , Taiwan and the Pescadores were ceded by the Qing Dynasty to Japan in 1895. Japan surrendered it in 1945 at the end of World War II after 50 Years Of Colonial Rule , and Taiwan was returned to the Republic of China (ROC). The ROC would then claim sovereignty on the basis of the Qing dynasty's administration, Cairo Declaration , Potsdam Declaration , and Japanese Instrument Of Surrender , but this became contested by pro-independence groups in subsequent years due to different perceptions of the said documents' legality. Taiwan's resources were used to supply the ROC in the Chinese Civil War ostensibly at the expense of the people living on Taiwan. An explosion of anger/resentment of ROC rule occurred on February 27, 1947 which became known as the 228 Incident . Martial Law was declared by the ROC and the government functioned as a Dictatorship until the lifting of martial law in 1987. Upon losing the Chinese civil war in 1949, the ROC government retreated to Taipei, and kept control over a few islands along the coast of Mainland China and in the South China Sea . The People's Republic Of China (PRC) was established on the mainland on October 1, 1949, claiming to be the Successor to the ROC.

Quemoy , Matsu and Wuchiu on the coast of Fukien , and Taiping and Pratas in the South China Sea , are part of the ROC's present territory, but were not ceded to Japan. Some arguments supporting the independence of Taiwan do not apply to these islands.

QUESTION OF SOVEREIGNTY OVER TAIWAN

See Also: Legal status of Taiwan

Cession, retrocession and self-determination of Taiwan

.
The PRC (founded October 1, 1949 and claims to be the only legal government in Mainland China, Taiwan and associated territories) claims its sovereignty over Taiwan, since Japan's being defeated in the WWII and the validity of Potsdam Declaration which directly leads to the expiration of the Treaty Of Shimonoseki .]]

and the 1945 Potsdam Declaration have reaffirmed in unequivocal terms China’s sovereignty over Taiwan as a matter of international law."

On the other hand, a number of supporters of Taiwan Independence argue that Taiwan was only formally incorporated as a Chinese territory under the Qing Dynasty in 1683, and as a province in 1885. Subsequently, because of the Shimonoseki Treaty of 1895, Taiwan had been '' De Jure '' part of Japan when the ROC was established in 1912 and thus was not part of the Chinese republic. However, the Unification supporters point out that "the Qing Dynasty" was universally accepted as a historical name for China. Thus, the ROC government was a succession of Qing China. Also, because the Cairo Declaration was an unsigned press communiqué, the independence advocates argue that the legal effectiveness of the Declaration is highly questionable. Furthermore, they point out that the Instrument of Surrender of Japan was no more than an Armistice , a " Modus Vivendi " in nature, which served as a temporary or provisional agreement that would be replaced with a Peace Treaty . Therefore, the independence supporters assert that the military occupation of Taiwan began on Oct. 25, 1945, and both the San Francisco Peace Treaty and Treaty Of Taipei hold the legal supremacy over the surrender instrument. Importantly, these treaties did not transfer the title of Taiwan from Japan to China. According to this argument, the sovereignty of Taiwan was returned to the people of Taiwan when Japan renounced sovereignty of Taiwan in the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT) in 1951, based on the policy of Self-determination which has been applied to "territories which detached from enemy states as a result of the Second World War" as defined by article 76b and 77b of the United Nations Charter and also by the protocol of the Yalta Conference . No precedent under international law exists for such an argument however. Despite this, unification supporters counter that since neither the Republic of China (ROC) nor the People's Republic of China(PRC) signed the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT), that treaty cannot affect the Chinese claims to Taiwan. Independence advocates point out that at the end of World War II, allied powers agreed that the Republic of China was to "temporarily occupy Taiwan, on behalf of the Allied forces" under the authorization from General Douglas MacArthur 's General Order No. 1 of September 2, 1945. The Unification supporters refer to the fact that the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation were cited in both the Japanese Instrument of Surrender and The Treaty of Peace between Japan and the People's Republic of China, completing the returning of sovereignty from Japan to China. Therefore the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation, and the subsequent Japanese Instrument of Surrender and The Peace Treaty (1978) between Japan and PRC should take legal supremacy over General MacArthur's orders. In addition, Gen. MacArthur was not given the command of the Allied Forces in China Theater. Thus Gen. MacArthur did not have authority to issue commands to Allied Troops in China (i.e. Chinese troops), who landed and brought Taiwan under Chinese rule again. In fact, the order was issued to the Japanese troops to surrender to Allied Commander of China Theater (i.e., Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek). Even though some people interpret the 1952 Treaty of Taipei as indirectly suggesting that Japan recognized the ROC government's sovereignty over Taiwan, Penghu, and "territories which are now, or which may hereafter be, under the control of its Government," Japan terminated this treaty upon establishment of diplomatic relations with the PRC in 1972 by acknowledging the PRC's claim that Taiwan is part of China.

Although the interpretation of the peace treaties was used to challenge the legitimacy of the ROC on Taiwan before the 1990s, the introduction of popular elections in Taiwan has compromised this position. Except for the most extreme Taiwan independence supporters, most Taiwanese support the has been frequently emphasizing the popular sovereignty theory in his speeches.

However, As Of 2007 , the conflict between these two theories still plays a role in internal Taiwanese politics. The popular sovereignty theory, which the Pan-green Coalition emphasizes, suggests that Taiwan could make fundamental constitutional changes by means of a popular referendum. The ROC legal theory, which is supported by the Pan-blue Coalition , suggests that any fundamental constitutional changes would require that the amendment procedure of the ROC constitution be followed.

POSITION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC)

The position of the PRC is that the ROC ceased to be a legitimate government upon the founding of the former on October 1 , 1949 and that the PRC is the successor of the ROC as the sole legitimate government of China , with the right to rule Taiwan under the Succession Of States Theory .² Whether the ROC, on the other hand, still has the legitimacy to retake the mainland is not widely accepted, but disputed.

The ROC argues that it maintains all the characteristics of a state and that it was not "replaced" or "succeeded" by the PRC because it has continued to exist long after the PRC's founding. According to the Montevideo Convention of 1933 , the most cited source for the definition of statehood, a state must possess a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. The ROC claims to meet all these criteria as it possesses a sovereign government exercising effective jurisdiction over well-defined territories with over 23 million permanent residents and a full fledged foreign ministry.

The Unification supporters in Mainland China argue that the ROC and PRC are two different factions in the Chinese Civil War, which never legally ended. Therefore both factions belong to the same sovereign country—China. Since Taiwan's sovereignty belongs to China, the secession of Taiwan should be agreed upon by 1.3 billion Chinese citizens instead of the 23 million ROC citizens who currently live on the Taiwan. Furthermore, given the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 , which states "Recognizing that the representatives of the Government of the People's Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations", the PRC is formally granted the sovereignty of all of China, including Taiwan. Therefore, based on the PRC's sovereignty claim on Taiwan, it is well within the legal rights of the People's Republic of China to extend its jurisdiction to Taiwan, by military means if necessary.

In addition, the PRC argues that the ROC does not meet the fourth criterion of the Montevideo Convention, as it is recognized by only 24 (relatively small and poor) countries and has been denied access to international organizations such as the UN. The ROC counters that the pressure the PRC exerts prevents the ROC from being widely recognized and that Article 3 of the same Montevideo Convention specifically says, "The political existence of the state is independent of recognition by other states." This was accomplished because the PRC took many coercive steps to isolate the ROC diplomatically. Nevertheless, the Unification supporters point out the fact that the Montevideo Convention was only signed by 19 states at the Seventh International Conference of American States. Thus the authority of the United Nations as well as UN Resolutions should supersede the Montevideo Convention .

The current position of the People's Republic Of China is that "the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China". This view is rejected by Taiwan 's Republic Of China government which holds the view that both PRC and ROC are two separate and sovereign Chinese Governments that split during the Chinese Civil War . The PRC government is unwilling to negotiate with the Republic Of China ( Taiwan ) under any formulation other than under a One-China Policy , although flexibility in terms of defining that "one China" such as found in the 1992 Consensus is allowed. The PRC government considers perceived violations of its One-China policy, or inconsistencies such as supplying the ROC with arms, a violation of its rights to Territorial Integrity .³ International news organizations often report that "China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be united with the mainland by force if necessary", even though the PRC does not explicitly say that Taiwan is a renegade province. However, official PRC media outlets and officials often refer to Taiwan as "China's Taiwan Province ". (The PRC claims Quemoy , Wuchiu and Matsu as part of its Fujian Province , and the South China Sea Islands part of its Guangdong and Hainan provinces.)

POSITION OF THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA (ROC)

The position of the Republic Of China has always been that it is a '' De Jure '' sovereign state.⁴ The ROC government under Kuomintang rule actively maintained that it was the sole legitimate government of China, until 1991 , when President Lee Teng-hui claimed that the government would no longer challenge the rule of the Communists on the mainland. However, the now defunct National Assembly never officially changed the national borders, as the People's Republic Of China claims this would be "a precursor to Taiwan independence". The task of changing the national borders now requires a constitutional amendment passed by the Legislative Yuan and ratified by an absolute majority of all eligible ROC voters.

On the other hand, though the have mentioned Taiwan "Province." Thus, many pro-Independence advocates point out that the ROC constitution in fact denies its own legality governing Taiwan. {Link without Title}

The now defunct National Assembly passed constitutional amendments that give the people of the " Free Area Of The Republic Of China ", comprised of the territories it controls, the sole right to exercise the sovereignty of the Republic through elections⁵ of the President and the entire Legislature as well as through elections to ratify amendments to the ROC constitution. Also, Chapter I, Article 2 of the ROC constitution states that "The sovereignty of the Republic of China shall reside in the whole body of citizens." For some, this suggests that the constitution implicitly admits that the sovereignty of the ROC is limited to the areas that it controls even if there is no constitutional amendment that explicitly spells out the ROC's borders.

In ) in which both the Republic Of China (ROC) and the People's Republic Of China ( PRC ) would acknowledge that they are two separate countries with a special diplomatic, cultural and historic relationship, and gained immense support within Taiwan.⁶ ⁷ This however drew an angry reaction from the PRC who believed that Lee was covertly supporting Taiwan Independence .⁸

President Chen Shui-bian , the current ROC President , fully supports that the " Republic Of China is an independent, sovereign country" but holds the view that "Taiwan is the Republic of China" and not the People's Republic Of China . This is suggested in his Four-stage Theory Of The Republic Of China . Due to the necessity of avoiding war with the PRC however, President Chen has been deliberately silent as to the issue of whether Taiwan is or is not part of China and the meaning of the term " China ". Government publications have implied that Taiwan refers to the ROC, and "China" refers to the PRC. President Chen has repeatedly refused to endorse the One China Principle the PRC requires for negotiations to begin. There have been thus far unsuccessful attempts to restart semi-formal negotiations through formulations that refer to the '' 1992 Consensus '' or the ''spirit of 1992 ''. After becoming chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party in July 2002, Chen appeared to move toward a two states theory and in early August 2002 , he stated that Taiwan may "go on its own Taiwanese road" and that "it is clear that the two sides of the straits are separate countries." These statements were strongly criticized by opposition parties in Taiwan.

The position of supporters of Taiwan Independence is that Taiwan is not part of China and the PRC is the sole legitimate government of China. Until the mid- 1990s , supporters of Taiwan Independence opposed the Republic of China and supported the creation of an independent Republic Of Taiwan . Since the mid-1990s, a compromise has been reached between most supporters of Taiwan Independence and Chinese Reunification on Taiwan to support the continuation of the Republic of China but as a government that administers only Taiwan and other islands. The Taiwan Solidarity Union , the junior party within the pan-Green coalition, opposes this compromise.

The position of supporters of Chinese Reunification in Taiwan is that Taiwan is part of China but the PRC is not the sole legitimate government of China, and that reunification does not necessarily have to occur under the communist regime. Within Taiwan, support for Taiwan independence and Chinese reunification exists as part of a political spectrum with most people in the middle. Traditionally, reunification has more support among "mainlanders" (the descendants of those who fled the mainland after the Civil War ), while support for independence is rooted in the "Taiwanese" majority "ethnic" group (those who have lived on the island since before the civil war). However, both groups were reconciled because of the coercive measures that the PRC took in an effort to force reunification or annexation.

POSITION OF OTHER COUNTRIES AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

:''See also Foreign Relations Of The Republic Of China

Because of anti-communist sentiment at the start of the Cold War , the Republic Of China was initially recognized as the sole legitimate government of China by the United Nations and most Western nations. On January 9, 1950, the Israeli government extended recognition to the People's Republic of China. United Nations General Assembly Resolution 505 , passed on February 1 , 1952 considered the Chinese communists to be rebels against the Republic of China. However, the 1970s saw a switch in diplomatic recognitions from the ROC to the PRC. On 25 October 1971 , Resolution 2758 was passed by the UN General Assembly , which In Effect Expelled the Republic of China and placed the People's Republic of China on the Security Council seat as well in all other UN organizations. It declared "that the representatives of the Government of the People's Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations." Multiple attempts by the Republic of China to rejoin the UN, no longer to represent all of China but just the people of the territories it governs, have not made it past committee, largely due to diplomatic maneuvering by the PRC, which claims Resolution 2758 has settled the matter. (''See China And The United Nations .'')

The PRC refuses to maintain diplomatic relations with any nation that recognizes the ROC, but does not object to nations conducting economic, cultural, and other such exchanges with Taiwan that do not imply diplomatic relation. Therefore, many nations that have diplomatic relations with Beijing maintain quasi-diplomatic offices in Taipei. For example, the United States maintains the American Institute In Taiwan . Similarly, the government in Taiwan maintains quasi-diplomatic offices in most nations under various names, most commonly as the Taipei Economic And Cultural Office .

The ROC maintains formal diplomatic relations with 24 countries, mostly in Central America and Africa. Interestingly, the Holy See also recognizes the ROC, a largely non- Christian / Catholic state, mainly to protest what it sees as the PRC's Suppression Of The Catholic Faith in mainland China. However, Vatican diplomats were engaged in talks with PRC politicians at the time of Pope John Paul II 's death, with a view towards improving relations between the two countries. When asked, one Vatican diplomat suggested that relations with Taiwan might prove "expendable" should China be willing to engage in positive diplomatic relations with the Holy See.¹⁰

During the 1990s , there was a diplomatic tug of war in which the PRC and ROC attempted to outbid each other to obtain the diplomatic support of small nations. This struggle seems to have slowed as a result of the PRC's growing economic power and doubts in Taiwan as to whether this aid was actually in the Republic of China's interest. In March 2004 , Dominica switched recognition to the PRC in exchange for a large aid package.¹¹ However, in late 2004, Vanuatu briefly switched recognition from Beijing to Taipei,¹² leading to the ousting of its Prime Minister and a return to its recognition of Beijing.¹³ On January 20 , 2005 , Grenada switched its recognition from Taipei to Beijing, in return for millions in aid (US$1,500 for every Grenadian).¹⁴. However, on May 14 , 2005 , Nauru announced the restoration of formal diplomatic relations with Taipei after a three-year hiatus, during which it briefly recognized the People's Republic of China. ¹⁵

On October 26 , 2005 , Senegal broke off relations with the Republic of China and established diplomatic contacts with Beijing.¹⁶ The following year, on August 5 , 2006 , Taipei ended relations with Chad when Chad established relations with Beijing.¹⁷ On April 26 , 2007 , however, Saint Lucia , which had previously severed ties with Taiwan following a change of government in December 1996, announced the restoration of formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.¹⁸ On June 7 , 2007 , Costa Rica broke off diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of the mainland.

Currently, the countries who maintain formal diplomatic relations with the ROC include:

saw the ROC team compete under the name '' Chinese Taipei ''. Their flag was prominently absent from the tournament's logo, instead stretching the Italian flag to double length to cover the entire background (top middle)]]

Under continuing pressure from the PRC to bar any representation of the ROC that may imply statehood, international organizations have adopted different policies toward the issue of Taiwan's participation. In cases where almost all UN members or sovereign states participate, such as the , Taiwan is also coded CN-71 under China, thus making Taiwan part of China in ISO 3166-1 and ISO 3166-2 categories.

Naming issues surrounding Taiwan/ROC continue to be a contentious issue in non-governmental organizations such as the Lions Club , which faced considerable controversy naming its Taiwanese branch.²¹

SLIPS OF THE TONGUE

Many political leaders who have maintained some form of One-China Policy have committed slips of the tongue in referring to Taiwan as a country or as the Republic of China. United States presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush have been known to have referred to Taiwan as a country during their terms of office. Although near the end of his term as U.S. Secretary Of State , Colin Powell said that Taiwan is not a state, he referred to Taiwan as the Republic of China twice during a testimony to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 9 , 2001 .²² In the People's Republic Of China Premier Zhu Rongji 's farewell speech to the National People's Congress , Zhu accidentally referred to Mainland China and Taiwan as two countries.²³ There are also those from the PRC who informally refer to Taiwan as a country.²⁴ South Africa delegates once referred to Taiwan as the " Republic Of Taiwan " during Lee Teng-hui 's term as President of the ROC.²⁵ In 2002, Michael Bloomberg , the mayor of New York , referred to Taiwan as a country.²⁶ Most recently, former US Secretary Of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated in a local Chinese newspaper in California in July 2005 that Taiwan is "a sovereign nation". The People's Republic Of China discovered the statement about three months after it was made.

In a controversial speech on February 4, 2006, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso called Taiwan a country with very high education levels because of previous Japanese Colonial Rule over the island.²⁷ One month later, he told a Japanese parliamentary committee that " democracy is considerably matured and Liberal Economics is deeply ingrained, so it is a law-abiding country. In various ways, it is a country that shares a sense of values with Japan." At the same time, he admitted that "I know there will be a problem with calling [Taiwan a country".²⁸ Later, the Japanese Foreign Ministry tried to downplay or reinterpret his remarks.

In February 2007 , the Royal Grenada Police Band played Taiwan's National Anthem in an inauguration of the reconstructed St George's Queen's Park Stadium funded by the PRC. Grenada had broken off diplomatic relationship with Taiwan just two years prior in favor of the PRC. {Link without Title}

When the Kuomintang visited Mainland China in 2005, the government-controlled Chinese media called this event as a "visit," and called the KMT one of "Taiwan's political parties" even though the Kuomintang's full name remains the "Chinese Nationalist Party." Interestingly in Mainland China, there is a legal party called the Revolution Committee of the Kuomintang that is officially one of the nine "consultative parties," according to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

The Chinese government has stated that it expresses a welcoming attitude towards Taiwanese businesspeople should they choose to return to the "motherland" for business purposes, but treats Taiwanese investment as "foreign investment". This is simply out of convenience, and the Chinese government also treats investment from Hong Kong "foreign investment", but this can result in confusion although the PRC clearly would not consider Hong Kong or Taiwan to be foreign nations.

POSSIBLE MILITARY SOLUTIONS AND INTERVENTION

Until 1979, both sides intended to resolve the conflict militarily. Intermittent Clashes occurred throughout the 1950s and 1960s, with escalations comprising the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises . In 1979 , with the U.S. change of diplomatic recognition to the PRC, the ROC lost its ally needed to "recover the mainland." Meanwhile, the PRC's desire to be accepted in the international community led it to promote peaceful unification under what would later be termed " One Country, Two Systems ," rather than to "liberate Taiwan" and institute Socialism (in other words, to make Taiwan a Special Administrative Region ).

PRC's condition on military intervention

Notwithstanding, the PRC government has issued triggers for an immediate war with Taiwan, most notably via its controversial Anti-Secession Law Of 2005 . These conditions are:

if events occur leading to the ''separation'' of Taiwan from China ''in any name'', or

if a major event occurs which would lead to Taiwan's separation from China, or

if all possibility of peaceful unification is lost.

It has been interpreted that these criteria encompasses the scenario of Taiwan developing nuclear weapons (''see main article'' Taiwan And Weapons Of Mass Destruction ).

Much Saber-rattling by the mainland has been done over this, with Jiang Zemin , after assuming the mantle of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, becoming a leading voice.

The third condition has especially caused a stir in Taiwan as the term "indefinitely" is open to interpretation. It has also been viewed by some as meaning that preserving the ambiguous status quo is not acceptable to the PRC, although the PRC stated on many occasions that there is no explicit timetable for reunification.

Concern over a formal declaration of ''de jure'' Taiwan Independence is a strong impetus for the military buildup between Taiwan and mainland China. Some people believe that Taiwan will attempt a declaration of independence during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing. Others point out that the current US administration has publicly declared that given the status quo, it would not aid Taiwan if it were to declare independence unilaterally.²⁹

According to ROC President Chen Shui-bian , China has accelerated the deployment of missiles against Taiwan to 120 a year, bringing the total arsenal to 706 ballistic missiles capable of being fitted with nuclear warheads that are aimed at Taiwan. Some believe that their deployment is a political tool on the part of the PRC to increase political pressure on Taiwan to abandon unilateral moves toward formal independence, at least for the time being, although the PRC government never declares such deployment publicly.

Balance of power

The possibility of war, the close geographical proximity of ROC -controlled Taiwan and PRC -controlled mainland China, and the resulting flare-ups that occur every few years, conspire to make this one of the most watched focal points in the Pacific. Both sides have chosen to have a strong naval presence. However, naval strategies between both powers greatly shifted in the 1980s and 1990s, while the ROC assumed a more defensive attitude by building and buying frigates and missile destroyers, and the PRC a more aggressive posture by developing long-range cruise missiles and supersonic SSMs.

Although the People's Liberation Army Air Force is considered large and powerful, most of its fleet consists of outdated J-7 fighters (localized MiG-21 and Mig-21BIs), raising doubts over the PLAAF's ability to control Taiwan's airspace in the event of a conflict. Since mid-1990s China has been purchasing, and later localizing, SU-27 based fighters. These Russian fighters, as well as their Chinese J11A variants, are currently over 170 in number, and have increased the effectiveness of PLAAF's BVR , or beyond visual range, capabilities. The introduction of 60 new-generation J10A fighter are anticipated to increase the PLAAF's firepower. China's acquisition of Russian Su30MKKs further enhanced the PLAAF's air-to-ground support ability. The ROC's air force, on the other hand, relies on Taiwan's second generation fighters, consisting of 150 US-built F-16s , approximately 60 French-built Mirage 2000-5s , and approximately 130 locally developed IDFs (Indigenous Defence Fighters). All of these ROC fighter jets are able to conduct BVR combat missions with BVR missiles, but the level of technology in mainland Chinese fighters is catching up.

In 2003 , the ROC made purchased four missile destroyers—the former USS ''Kidd'' class, and expressed a strong interest in the ''Arleigh Burke'' Class . But with the growth of the PRC Navy and Air Force , some doubt that the ROC could withstand a determined invasion attempt from mainland China in the future. These concerns have led to a view in certain quarters that Taiwan independence, if it is to be implemented, should be attempted as early as possible, while the ROC still has the capacity to prevail in an all-out military conflict. Over the past three decades, estimates of how long Taiwan can withstand a full-scale invasion from across the Strait without any outside help have decreased from three months to only six days.³⁰ Given such estimates, the US Navy has continued practicing "surging" its carrier groups, giving it the experience necessary to respond quickly to an attack on Taiwan.³¹ The US also collects data on the PRC's military deployments, through the use of Spy Satellite s, for example. It would take days, if not weeks, for China to prepare for a full assault on Taiwan.

However, numerous reports issued by the PRC, ROC and US militaries make wildly mutually contradictory statements about the possible defense of Taiwan.

Naturally, war contingencies are not being planned in a vacuum. In 1979 , the United States Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act , a law generally interpreted as mandating U.S. defense of Taiwan in the event of an attack from the Chinese Mainland (the Act is applied to Taiwan and the Pescadores, but not to Quemoy and Matsu). The United States maintains the world's largest permanent fleet in the Pacific Region near Taiwan. The Seventh Fleet , operating primarily out of various bases in Japan, is a powerful naval contingent built upon the world's only permanently forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS ''Kitty Hawk'' . Although the stated purpose of the fleet is not Taiwanese defense, it can be safely assumed from past actions that that is one of the reasons why the fleet is stationed in those waters.

Starting in 2000 , Japan renewed its defense obligations with the US and embarked on a rearmament program, partly in response to fears that Taiwan might be invaded. Some analysts believed that the PRC could launch Pre-emptive strikes on military bases in Japan to deter US and Japanese forces from coming to Taiwan's aid. Japanese strategic planners also see an independent Taiwan as vital, not only because Taiwan controls valuable shipping routes, but also because its capture by China would make Japan more vulnerable. During World War II , the US invaded the Philippines , but another viable target to enable direct attacks on Japan would have been Taiwan (then known as Formosa). However, critics of the pre-emptive strike theory assert that the PRC would be loath to give Japan and the US such an excuse to intervene.

A Taiwan software program simulating an attack by China reflects a win for Taiwan. Fox News: Computer Simulation Has Taiwan Beating China in War, Taiwanese Military Says Sign On San Diego

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

''Kang Ding''-class Frigate with S-70C helicopter]]
In 1996, the PRC began conducting Military Exercises Near Taiwan , and launched several Ballistic Missile s over the island. The saber-rattling was done in response to the possible re-election of then President Lee Teng-hui . The United States, under then President Clinton, sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region, sailing them into the Taiwan Strait. The PRC, unable to track the ships' movements, and probably unwilling to escalate the conflict, quickly backed down. The event had little impact on the outcome of the election, since none of Lee's contestants were strong enough to defeat him, but it is widely believed that the PRC's aggressive acts, far from intimidating the Taiwanese population, gave Lee a boost that pushed his share of votes over 50 percent.

The possibility of war in the Taiwan Straits, even though quite low in the short-term, requires the PRC, ROC, and U.S. to remain wary and vigilant. The goal of the three parties at the moment seems to be, for the most part, to maintain the status quo.

DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 2004 AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Judicial

On October 24, 2006, Dr. Roger C. S. Lin led a group of Taiwanese residents, including members of the Taiwan Nation Party , to file a Complaint for Declaratory Relief in the United States District Court For The District Of Columbia . According to their lawyer, Mr. Charles Camp, " {Link without Title} he Complaint asks the Court to declare whether the Taiwanese plaintiffs, including members of the Taiwan Nation Party, have certain rights under the United States Constitution". ³² Their central argument is that, following Japanese renunciation of all rights and claims to Taiwan, Taiwan came under U.S. jurisdiction and remains so to this day. After an extension was granted, the United States government responded with a Motion to Dismiss on January 12, 2007, mostly on the basis that the United States government has not waived its Sovereign Immunity , that this is a political question not suitable for a court to determine, and that the Plaintiffs failed to nominate a specific grievance for relief.³³

The Plaintiffs were scheduled to reply on or before January 29, but later also extended to February 16. The bulk of the rebuttal was concentrated on countering the defendants' 'non-justiciable political question' argument, citing the Baker/Goldwater standard. Plaintiffs next argued that they have suffered an injury-in-fact from being denied a recognized nationality, and cites several statues and the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SPFT) in which the court was given jurisdiction and the United States waived its sovereign immunity over the matter. In the last sections, the Plaintiffs argued that they have stated specific claims for relief and that the law does not require them to introduce all or any claims when filing the complaint initially.³⁴

The Government was scheduled to reply by March 9, 2007, but once again an extension of two weeks was granted. Nonetheless, on March 23, the defendant's Motion to Dismiss the original complaint was denied "as moot {Link without Title} n light of the Amended Complaint filed" by the Plaintiffs on March 19. The Amended Complaint remains largely the same as the original, with minor structural changes, additional legal references, and, importantly, the inclusion of the Plaintiffs' failed attempts at applying for a U.S. passport on March 29, 2006, as a specific grievance.³⁵

The United States of America, however, again filed a Motion to Dismiss the Amended Complaint on April 5. The new motion specifies that America's legal relationship with Taiwan "derives solely and exclusively" from Executive Order 13014, and cites the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1954 which states that "'territories' shall mean in respect of the Republic of China, Taiwan and the Pescadores" as evidence that the United States then considered Taiwan part of the ROC. The Defendant asserted that the court does not have subject matter jurisdiction, mostly on the basis that sovereignty over a territory is a non-justiciable political question. The motion also argued that Plaintiffs' claim is not one for which relief may be granted, on the grounds that the U.S. does not hold ''de jure'' sovereignty over Taiwan, and that therefore the Plaintiffs are not U.S. nationals who, under the Immigration Nationality Act, may bring a declaratory judgement action.

Plaintiffs filed an Opposition to Motion to Dismiss on April 19 to counter these arguments, stating that their complaint has been mischaracterized. The opening arguments are that the SFPT is the 'supreme law of the land' and overrides Executive Order 13014, and that the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations specified no modification of the existing legal status of Taiwan by the Mutual Defense Treaty. Most of the motion was then devoted to arguing that this is a justiciable political case, as opposed to political questions non-justiciable under the Baker/Goldwater standard, and argued that the Court has power to determine the extent to which U.S. laws apply regardless of the Executive's position.³⁶

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	CATEGORIES ABOUT POLITICAL STATUS OF TAIWAN

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Political Status Of Taiwan