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The Kardashev scale is a general method of classifying how Technologically advanced a Civilization is, first proposed in 1964 by the Soviet Astronomer Nikolai Kardashev . It had three categories, based on the amount of usable Energy a civilization has at its disposal and increasing Logarithmically :
All such civilizations are purely hypothetical at this point. However, the Kardashev scale is of use to SETI researchers, Science Fiction authors, and Futurists as a theoretical framework. To put the amount of energy conjectured by this scale into perspective, consider that the ten-second-long burst of Neutrino s that follows a Supernova releases roughly 1046 joules (100 Foe s).1 This is roughly equivalent to 1,000 times the amount of energy that Kardashev speculated would be harnessed in a year by a Type III civilization. USAGE AND EXAMPLES Human civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization has thus been named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan argued that they could easily be defined by Interpolating and Extrapolating the values given above. He calculated humanity's current civilization to be 0.7 (at his time). He used a power output of ~10TW and the formula: : where ''K'' is a civilization's Kardashev rating and ''W'' is its power output in watts. Note that Roman numerals must still be used for the integer part of a civilization's rating, while the fractional part is written in decimal. A possible method by which Earth can advance to a Type I civilization is to begin the heavy use of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion , Wind Turbine s and Tidal Power to obtain the energy received by Earth's Ocean s from the Sun. However, there is no known way to successfully utilize the full potential of Earth's energy production without complete coating of the surface with man made structures. In the near and medium Future , this is an impossibility given the current lifestyle of humanity. Currently, we are already "harnessing" Earth's production through our dependence upon Ecosystem Services , which may prove more efficient and sustainable than our own technology well into the future. If we choose never to fully substitute synthetics for Nature's Services on this planet, we may still achieve a Type I civilization by assuring that Earth's ecosystem services are maximally functional. A simpler and far less intrusive method would be to place solar collectors with sufficient surface area into orbit. A hypothetical Type II civilization might employ a Dyson Sphere or other similar construct in order to utilize all of the energy output by a star, or perhaps more exotic means such as feeding stellar mass into a Black Hole to generate usable energy. Alternatively, it may occupy a large number of solar systems, absorbing a small but significant fraction of the output of each individual star. A Type III civilization might use the same techniques employed by a Type II civilization, applied to all of the stars of one or more galaxies individually, or perhaps might use other mechanisms not yet proposed. Possible timeline Humanity's current history indicates a timeline roughly shown here. These values are approximate, and include future predictions, from 0.8 onwards. They use Sagan's extrapolated version of the scale. Function as a teleology When transformed from a scale of energy use measurement into a predictive, or normative, description of desirable future technology the Kardashev scale becomes ". As a description of past and future human history it should be compared with the Marxist theory of Modes Of Production which makes similar assertions about combinations of technological and social structures, albeit across a shorter time span. CIVILIZATION IMPLICATIONS There are many historical examples of civilizations undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution. The transition between Kardashev scale levels could potentially represent similarly dramatic periods of social upheaval, since they entail surpassing the hard limits of the resources available in a civilization's existing territory. A common speculation suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization's home planet, similar to a Malthusian Catastrophe . Contact constraints For pre-Type I civilizations, it may be too costly to attempt contact with other more advanced civilizations because of the energy output needed. It has been predicted that in order to provide a reliable contact beacon of sufficient power to be noticeable to a Type II civilization, a beacon must output such high energy levels that the cost would be around $ 1 Billion per year in energy.2 As a result it has been suggested that civilization must advance into Type I before the energy required for reliable contact with other civilizations would not drain a civilization's economic resources. However, this argument from 1980 assumes omni-directional beacons, which may not be the best way to proceed. Advances in consumer electronics have made possible transmitters that can illuminate the stars only, and not the space between themScheffer, L. (2005) , Radio Science, , 40, RS5012.. This can reduce the power and cost to levels that are reasonable with current (2007) earth technology. Once civilizations have discovered each others' locations, the energy requirements for maintaining contact and exchanging information can be significantly reduced through the use of highly directional transmission technologies. In 1974, the Arecibo Observatory transmitted a message toward the M13 Globular Cluster about 25,000 light-years away, for example, and the use of larger antennas or shorter wavelengths would allow transmissions of the same energy to be focused on even more remote targets, such as those attempted by SETI. EXTENSIONS TO THE ORIGINAL SCALE The sub-Type I state that human civilization currently occupies was not originally included in the Kardashev scale but is now commonly referred to as "Type 0". Zoltan Galantai has defined a further extrapolation of the scale, a Type IV level at 1046W that is within a few orders of magnitude of the energy output of the visible Universe . Such a civilization approaches or surpasses the limits of speculation based on current scientific understanding, and may not be possible. Frank J. Tipler 's Omega Point would presumably occupy this level, as would the Biocosm hypothesis. Galantai has argued that such a civilization could not be detected, as its activities would be indistinguishable from the workings of nature (there being nothing to compare them to). 3 Kaku has discussed a type IV civilization, which could harness "extragalactic" energy sources such as ''. New York: Doubleday, 2005. ISBN 0713997281 HYPOTHETICAL FUTURES Science fiction, having extended these values has also provided guides for possible future changes associated with the fractionalized version of the Kardashev scale. One possible future is presented here. The majority of the assumptions presented here are derived from scientific literature. Nikolai Kardashev's article "On the Inevitability and the Possible Structures of Supercivilizations",5 where he explains that with increasing energy levels come increasing technology, decreasing cohesiveness, and varying likelihood of survival and contact, largely is a guide to this section. These civilizations and the changes within them are also referenced in Kardashev's papers "Cosmology and Civilization"6 and "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations".7 The last framework for these explanations can be found at ''Energy and Culture'', chapter 15.8 This article provides a much more detailed explanation than that which exists here. It presents a theoretical way to describe trends within more advanced civilizations, along with a specific description of different civilization types. Type I Researcher ''. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994. ISBN 0-19-286189-1 Type II According to Kaku, Kardaschev has estimated the development of such a civilization at the year 5200 , based on the assumption that energy usage grows exponentially at 1% per year. Type III According to Kaku, Kardaschev has estimated the development of such a civilization at the year 7800 . However, Dyson has argued that Relativity "may delay the transition to a Type III civilization by perhaps millions of years" due to the light speed limit. Since our Milky Way galaxy is approximately 40,000-50,000 Light Years in Radius , and our sun is about 25,000 light years from the galaxy's center, it would take at least 65,000-75,000 years for our civilization to reach every part of the galaxy if no way around the light speed limit can be found. CURRENT VALUES International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook past and projected values for planetary power production yield these corresponding Kardashev scale estimates: LITERATURE DESCRIBING DIFFERENT KARDASHEV TYPES These categorizations are not firm, and are neither complete nor absolute. Most science fiction space opera writers do not specifically write their works with Kardashev classification in mind. Isaac Asimov 's short story The Last Question covers many of the same themes as Kardashev's papers, in its descriptions of the future use of energy and entropy by human civilization; however it does not mention the scale, as it was written in 1956.
CONNECTIONS WITH SOCIOLOGY AND ANTHROPOLOGY Kardashev's theory can be viewed as the expansion of some s are determined by Technological System s'', wrote White in his book, echoing the earlier theory of Lewis Henry Morgan . As measure of society advancement he proposed the measure Energy Consumption of a given society (thus his theory is known as Energy Theory Of Cultural Evolution ). He differentiates between five stages of human development. In the first stage, people use energy of their own muscles. In the second stage, they use energy of Domesticated Animals . In the third stage, they use the energy of plants (which White refers to as Agricultural Revolution ). In the fourth stage, they learn to use the energy of natural resources - such as coal, oil and gas. Finally, in the fifth stage, they harness Nuclear Energy . White introduced a formula P=E×T, where P measures the advancement of the culture, E is a measure of energy consumed, and T is the measure of efficiency of technical factors utilising the energy. CRITICISM It has been argued that, because we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior; thus, Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what will actually occur for an advanced civilization. This central argument is found within the book ''''.A more controversial discussion can be found at 12 SEE ALSO
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