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James Davies




Davies asserts that revolutions are a subjective response to a sudden reversal in fortunes after a long period of economic growth. The theory is often applied to explain Social Unrest and efforts by governments to contain this unrest. This is referred to as the ''Davies' J-Curve'', because economic development followed by a depression would be modelled as an upside down and slightly skewed J.


QUOTE

"Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary. The evidence from Dorr's Rebellion , the Russian Revolution , and the Egyptian Revolution supports this notion; tentatively, so do data on other civil disturbances. Various statistics--as on rural uprisings, industrial strikes, unemployment, and cost of living--may serve as crude indexes of popular mood. More useful, though less easy to obtain, are direct questions in cross-sectional interviews. The goal of predicting revolution is conceived but not yet born or matured."

(From the abstract of J. C. Davies: "Toward a theory of revolution" American Sociological Review 27(1962):5-19, available via JSTOR , see also Citation Classics review )


BIBLIOGRAPHY

  • ''When Men Revolt and Why - A Reader in Political Violence and Revolution'' ( The Free Press , 1971)

  • ''Human Nature in Politics - The Dynamics of Political Behavior'' ( Wiley , 1963)