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]] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ('''IPCC''') was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to evaluate the risk of Climate Change brought on by humans. The IPCC does not carry out research, nor does it monitor climate or related phenomena. One of the main activities of the IPCC is to publish special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC).1 (The UNFCCC is an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change; implementation of the UNFCCC led eventually to the Kyoto Protocol .) The IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific literature. 2 The IPCC is only open to member states of the WMO and UNEP. IPCC reports are widely cited in almost any debate related to climate change.34 National and international responses to climate change generally regard the UN climate panel as authoritative.5 All IPCC technical reports face extensive scientific review. The summary reports (i.e. ''Summary for Policymakers''), which draw the most media attention, include review by participating governments in addition to scientific review. Principles Governing IPCC Work AIMS The principles of the IPCC operationIPCC. . Retrieved December 19 2006 . are assigned by the relevant WMO Executive Council and UNEP Governing Council resolutions and decisions as well as on actions in support of the UN Framework Convention On Climate Change process.
The stated aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information relevant to: # human-induced climate change, # the impacts of human-induced climate change, # options for adaptation and mitigation. The history of the IPCC is described in a . IPCC REPORTS The IPCC published its First Assessment Report in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995, and a Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001. A Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released in 2007. Each of the assessment reports is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II and III. Unqualified, "the IPCC report" is often used to mean the Working Group I report, which covers the basic science of climate change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was completed in early 2007[http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1_home.html IPCC WG1], UCAR.. Like previous assessment reports, it consists of four reports, three of them from its working groups. Working Group I dealt with the "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change." The Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was published on 2 February , 2007 and revised on 5 February , 2007 . There was also a 2 February , 2007 press release[http://www.ipcc.ch/press/prwg2feb07.htm Press release], IPCC, 2007-02-02.. The full WGI report was published in March. The key conclusions of the SPM were that, IPCC 2007-02-02.:
An outline of chapters in the WGI report (as of November 3, 2005) and a list of the report's authors (as of March 10, 2005) were made available before publication of the SPM. The Summary for Policymakers for the Working Group II {Link without Title} report was released on April 6, 2007Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: (23 page PDF file). The Summary for Policymakers for the Working Group III report 6 was released on May 4, 2007. The AR4 Synthesis Report (SYR) is expected to be finalized during the last quarter of 2007. IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 The Third Assessment Report (TAR) consists of four reports, three of them from its working groups:
The "headlines" from the Summary for Policymakers[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm Headlines], IPCC. in ''The Scientific Basis'' were: #An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system (The Global Average Surface Temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6 °C; Temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometers of the atmosphere; Snow cover and ice extent have decreased) #Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate (Anthropogenic aerosols are short-lived and mostly produce negative Radiative Forcing ; Natural factors have made small contributions to radiative forcing over the past century) #Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased (Complex physically based climate models are required to provide detailed estimates of feedback and of regional features. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e.g., they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/007.htm Working Group 1], IPCC..) #There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities #Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century #Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES Scenarios The TAR estimate for the Climate Sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.1 to 0.9 meters over the same period. The wide range in predictions is based on Scenarios that assume different levels of future CO2 emissions. Each scenario then has a range of possible outcomes associated with it. The most optimistic outcome assumes an aggressive campaign to reduce CO2 emissions; the most pessimistic is a "business as usual" scenario. Other scenarios fall in between. IPCC predictions are based on the same models used to establish the importance of the different factors in global warming. These models need data about anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. These data are predicted from Economic Model s based on 35 scenarios. Scenarios go from pessimistic to optimistic, and predictions of global warming depend on the kind of scenario considered. IPCC uses the best available predictions and their reports are under strong scientific scrutiny. The IPCC concedes that there is a need for better models and better scientific understanding of some climate phenomena, as well as the uncertainties involved. Critics assert that the data is insufficient to determine the real importance of Greenhouse Gas es in climate change. Sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gases may be overestimated or underestimated because of flaws in the models and because the importance of some external factors may be misestimated. The predictions are based on scenarios, and the IPCC did not assign any probability to the 35 scenarios used. Debate over Climate Change 2001 =Economic growth estimates Castles and Henderson asserted that the IPCC's use of exchange rates to convert GDP measures into a common currency is inappropriate, and that, for most countries a Purchasing Power Parity conversion would yield higher estimates of income. It follows that the rate of growth implied by an assumption of income convergence is higher if exchange rate conversions are used. They imply that this is likely to produced biased projections of emissions. Nebojsa Nakicenovic et al. claim that this is incorrect because, provided an internally consistent procedure is used, projections of emissions are unaffected by the choice of index number used to measure GDP.7 =Physical modeling See Also: global climate model A few scientists in IPCC Working Group I (Science) have expressed disagreement with the IPCC reports (of the 120 lead authors, 2 have complained). A particularly active critic, MIT physicist Richard Lindzen , expressed his unhappiness about those portions in the Executive Summary based on his contributions in May 2001 before the U.S. Senate Committee On Commerce, Science And Transportation : The Summary for Policymakers of the WG1 reports ''does'' include caveats on model treatments: ''Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e.g., they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales.'' {Link without Title} . These statements are in turn supported by the executive summary of chapter 8 of the report, which includes:
IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995 ''Climate Change 1995'', the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), was finished in 1996. It is split into four parts:
Each of the last three parts was completed by a separate working group, and each has a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) that represents a consensus of national representatives. The SPM of the WG I report contains headings: # Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase # Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcings # Climate has changed over the past century (air temperature has increased by between 0.3 and 0.6 °C since the late 19th century; this estimate has not significantly changed since the 1990 report). # The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate (considerable progress since the 1990 report in distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic influences on climate, because of: including aerosols; coupled models; pattern-based studies) # Climate is expected to continue to change in the future (increasing realism of simulations increases confidence; important uncertainties remain but are taken into account in the range of model projections) # There are still many uncertainties (estimates of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling; models; instrument data for model testing, assessment of variability, and detection studies) Debate over Climate Change 1995 Three scientists involved in climate research believe that the IPCC reports do not accurately summarise the state of knowledge. A December 20 , 1995 , Reuters report quoted British scientist Keith Shine , one of IPCC's lead authors, discussing the Policymakers' Summary. He said: "We produce a draft, and then the policymakers go through it line by line and change the way it is presented.... It's peculiar that they have the final say in what goes into a scientists' report". It is not clear, in this case, whether Shine was complaining that the report had been changed to be more skeptical, or less, or something else entirely. Dr. Frederick Seitz , president emeritus of Rockefeller University and past president of the National Academy of Sciences, has publicly denounced the IPCC report, writing "I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report". He opposed it in the Leipzig Declaration of his Science And Environmental Policy Project . In turn, Seitz's comments were vigorously opposed by the presidents of the American Meteorological Society and University Corporation For Atmospheric Research , who wrote about a ''systematic effort by some individuals to undermine and discredit the scientific process that has led many scientists working on understanding climate to conclude that there is a very real possibility that humans are modifying Earth's climate on a global scale. Rather than carrying out a legitimate scientific debate... they are waging in the public media a vocal campaign against scientific results with which they disagree'' {Link without Title} . S. Fred Singer disseminated a letter about Chapter 8, asserting that {Link without Title} : # Chapter 8 was altered substantially to make it conform to the Summary; # Three key clauses — expressing the consensus of authors, contributors, and reviewers — should have been placed into the Summary instead of being deleted from the approved draft chapter; Dr. Benjamin D. Santer , Convening Lead Author of Chapter 8 of 1995 IPCC Working Group I Report, replied {Link without Title} : # All revisions were made with the sole purpose of producing the best-possible and most clearly explained assessment of the science, and were under the full scientific control of the Convening Lead Author of Chapter 8. # None of the changes were politically motivated. IPCC Supplementary Report: 1992 The 1992 supplementary report was an update, requested in the context of the negotiations on the Framework Convention On Climate Change at the Earth Summit (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) in Rio De Janeiro in 1992. The major conclusion was that research since 1990 did "not affect our fundamental understanding of the science of the greenhouse effect and either confirm or do not justify alteration of the major conclusions of the first IPCC scientific assessment". It noted that transient (time-dependent) simulations, which had been very preliminary in the FAR, were now improved, but did not include aerosol or ozone changes. IPCC First Assessment Report: 1990 The IPCC first assessment report was completed in 1990, and served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC). The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report includes:
OPERATIONS The Chair of the IPCC is Rajendra K. Pachauri , elected in May 2002; previously Robert Watson headed the IPCC. The IPCC Panel is composed of representatives appointed by governments and organizations. Participation of delegates with appropriate expertise is encouraged. Plenary sessions of the IPCC and IPCC 2006 . Retrieved December 20 2006 . The meeting report IPCC. . February 19 2006 . Retrieved December 20 2006 . states there were 322 persons in attendance at Sessions with about seven-eighths of participants being from governmental organizations.IPCC. . February 19 2006 . Retrieved December 20 2006 . The IPCC is led by government scientists, but also involves several hundred academic scientists and researchers. It synthesises the available information about Climate Change and Global Warming , has published four major reports reviewing the latest climate science, as well as more specialized reports. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.IPCC. Mandate and Membership of IPCC . Retrieved December 20 2006 . There are several major groups:
The IPCC receives funding from UNEP, WMO, and its own Trust Fund for which it solicits contributions from governments. Contributors According to a flash animation on the front page of the IPCC's website , people from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6 years. These people included:
Of these, the contributors to the Working Group 1 report (including the summary for policy makers) included {Link without Title}
ACTIVITIES The IPCC concentrates its activities on the tasks allotted to it by the relevant WMO Executive Council and UNEP Governing Council resolutions and decisions as well as on actions in support of the UN Framework Convention On Climate Change process. In April 2006, the IPCC released the '' 2006 . Reports of the workshops held so far are available at the IPCC website.IPCC. Activities — Workshops & Expert Meetings . Retrieved December 20 2006.
If it decided to prepare one, the AR4 Synthesis Report (SYR) was to be finalised during the last quarter of 2007. That remains the plan. Documentation on the scoping meetings for the AR4 are available {Link without Title} as are the outlines for the WG I report and a provisional author list . While the preparation of the assessment reports is a major IPCC function, it also supports other activities, such as the Data Distribution Centre and the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme [http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/ , required under the UNFCCC . This involves publishing default Emission Factor s, which are factors used to derive emissions estimates based on the levels of fuel consumption, industrial production and so on. The IPCC also often answers inquiries from the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). PUBLICATIONS The IPCC reports are a compendium of Peer Review ed and published science. Each subsequent IPCC report notes areas where the science has improved since the previous report and also notes areas where further research is required. Authors for the IPCC reports are chosen from a list of researchers prepared by governments, and participating organisations and the Working Group/Task Force Bureaux, and other experts as appropriate, known through their publications and works (, 4.2.1,2). The composition of the group of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors for a section or chapter of a Report is intended to reflect the need to aim for a range of views, expertise and geographical representation (ensuring appropriate representation of experts from developing and developed countries and countries with economies in transition). There are generally three stages in the review process :
Review comments are in an open archive for at least five years. There are several types of endorsement which documents receive :
The Panel is responsible for the IPCC and its endorsement of Reports allows it to ensure they meet IPCC standards. The Panel's ''approval'' process has been criticized for changing the product of the experts who create the Reports. On the other hand, not requiring Panel re-endorsement of Reports has also been criticized, after changes required by the approval process were made to Reports. CRITICISM OF IPCC Christopher Landsea resignation See Also: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report In January 2005 who published Landsea's letter writes: "How anyone can deny that political factors were everpresent in the negotiations isn't paying attention", but notes that the actual report "Despite the pressures, on tropical cyclones they figured out a way to maintain consistency with the actual balance of opinion(s) in the community of relevant experts." He continues "So there might be a human contribution (and presumably this is just to the observed upwards trends observed in some basins, and not to downward trends observed in others, but this is unclear) but the human contribution itself has not been quantitatively assessed, yet the experts, using their judgment, expect it to be there. In plain English this is what is called a "hypothesis" and not a "conclusion." And it is a fair representation of the issue." Up: IPCC and Hurricanes Emphasis of the "Hockey Stick" Graph See Also: Hockey stick controversy
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| Title | Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries |
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| First1 | Michael E last1=Mann |
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| First2 | Raymond S last2=Bradley |
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| First3 | Malcolm K last3=Hughes |
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| Author1-link | Michael Mann (scientist) |
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| Author2-link | Raymond Bradley |
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| Journal | Nature |
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| Volume | 392 pages=779-787 year=1998 |
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| Url | http://wwwcaenvirothoncom/Resources/Mann,%20et%20al%20Global%20scale%20temp%20patternspdf |
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| Format | PDF |
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