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The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual Oil Field to the planet as a whole, the rate of Petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion. The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. Extraction roughly follows the discovery curve after a time lag (typically about 35 years Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19-20, 2005 Wood, Michigan Technical University Geology Department Oil Seminar 2003 [http://www.geo.mtu.edu/svl/GE3320/OIL%20SEMINAR%20jrw.ppt ) for development. The theory is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert , who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume. Hubbert's theory was initially greeted with skepticism by many in the oil industry, but has since gained widespread acceptance. in 1956 .]] and the Former Soviet Union ]] HUBBERT'S PEAK 'Hubbert's peak' can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions. in 1956, Hubbert predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970 (actual peak was 1970). Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. HUBBERT'S THEORY Hubbert curve . For applications, the ''x'' and ''y'' scales are replaced by time and production scales.]] In 1956 , Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the Hubbert Curve , the derivative of the Logistic Curve , for estimating future production. Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves ( Oil Reserves , coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline. The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak. Given past oil production data, a Hubbert curve may be constructed that attempts to approximate past data, and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. CavalloHubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004 {Link without Title} defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of: : where max is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), the cumulative production, and and are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is: : Use of multiple curves The sum of multiple Hubbert curves can be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios. {Link without Title} Definition of reserves Almost all of Hubbert peaks must be put in the context of high Ore Grade . Except for fissionable materials, any resource, including oil, is theoretically recoverable from the environment with the right technology. A current example would be Biofuel . However, a genetically engineered organism that produces crude oil would not invalidate Hubbert's peak for oil. His research was about the "easy" oil, "easy" metals, and so forth that can be recovered before a society considers greatly advanced mining efforts and how to time the necessity of such resource acquisition advancements or substitutions by knowing an "easy" resource's probable peak. Also, as reserves become more difficult to extract there is the possibility that mining or alternatives are too expensive for Developing Countries . The "easy" oil constraint also applies to " Abiotic Oil ", a theory believed by virtually no notable U.S. geologists, although it is believed by some Russian and Ukrainian geologists. This theory states that some oil is created through other methods than conventionally understood biogenic processes. However, in order to have any effect on Hubbert peak theory applied to oil, this other creation of oil would have to occur at a rate comparable to current Oil Depletion , something that has not been credibly observed. For Heavy Crude or deep water drilling attempts, such as Noxal Oil Field or Tar Sands or Oil Shale , the price of the oil extracted will have to include the extra effort required to mine these resources. Areas such as the outer continental shelf may also incur higher costs due to environmental concerns, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service . So not all Oil Reserves are equal, and the more difficult reserves are predicted by Hubbert as being typical of the post-peak side of the Hubbert curve. Reliability Generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1970, and this provides the greatest evidence to support the theory. Hubbert, in his 1956 paper, made two predictions for the US conventional oil production (crude oil + condensate):
Forty years later, the high estimate has been proven to be remarkably accurate in terms of production level and cumulative production. In 2005, the US production was 1.55 Gb with a cumulative production of 176.4 Gb (crude oil + condensate) and the Hubbert model is predicting 1.17 Gb (24% lower) and 178.2 Gb respectively. ECONOMICS Energy return on energy investment When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or EROEI ). Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. As the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the Net Energy Gain falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before the resource is physically exhausted. Note that it is important to understand the distinction between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a Barrel Of Oil Equivalent (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using Natural Gas to fuel Enhanced Oil Recovery . Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most Athabasca Tar Sands plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to Ethanol Fuel produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate. Growth-based economic models Several analysts have observed that the underlying issues go more deeply than the strategies governments use to interact with private markets, and suggest that Economic Growth may be a Limiting Factor for our species. See Exogenous Growth Model and Endogenous Growth Theory . Hubbert believed {Link without Title} : Some economists have summed up the problem in the concept of {Link without Title} . Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed Agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by Fossil Fuels in the form of Fertilizers (natural gas), Pesticides (oil), and Hydrocarbon fueled Irrigation . How peak oil could lead to starvation |
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