| Duckworth-lewis Method |
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EXAMPLE A simple example of the D/L method being applied was the first One-Day International (ODI) between India and Pakistan in their 2006 ODI series. India batted first, and were all out in the 49th over for 328. Pakistan, batting second, were 7 wickets down for 311 when bad light stopped play after the 47th over. This is a relatively uncontroversial example, because with three full overs left to play (18 balls) and three wickets in hand, most cricket fans would agree that Pakistan would be almost certain to close the 17-run gap and take the match. In fact, application of the D/L method showed that at the end of the 47th over, the target was 304, so the result of the match is officially listed as "Pakistan won by 7 runs (D/L Method)". Scorecard for the rain-affected 1st ODI between India and Pakistan on 6 February 2006 , from Cricinfo . THEORY s and Overs .]] The essence of the D/L method is "resources". Each team is taken to have two "resources" to use to make as many s they have to receive; and the number of Wicket s they have in hand. At any point in any Innings , a team's ability to score more runs depends on the combination of these two resources. Looking at historical scores, there is a very close correspondence between the availability of these resources and a team's final score, a correspondence which D/L exploits. Using a published table which gives the percentage of these combined resources remaining for any number of overs (or, more accurately, balls) left and wickets lost, the target score can be adjusted up or down to reflect the loss of resources to one or both teams when a match is shortened one or more times. This percentage is then used to calculate a target (sometimes called a "par score") that is usually a fractional number of runs. If the second team passes the target then the second team is taken to have won the match; if the match ends when the second team has exactly met (but not passed) the target (rounded down to the next Integer ) then the match is taken to be a Tie . APPLICATION The D/L method is relatively simple to apply, but requires a published reference table and some simple Mathematical calculation (or use of a computer). As with most non-trivial Statistical derivations, however, the D/L method can produce results that are somewhat Counterintuitive , and the announcement of the derived target score can provoke a good deal of second-guessing and discussion amongst the crowd at the cricket ground. This can also be seen as one of the method's successes, adding interest to a "slow" rain-affected day of play. Applied to 50 over matches, each team has to face at least 20 overs before D/L can decide the game. HISTORY The D/L method was devised by two English 1997 , from Cricinfo . and was formally adopted by the International Cricket Council in 2001 as the standard method of calculating target scores in rain shortened One-day matches. Previously, various different methods used to achieve the same task, including the use of explains how D/L would apply to 1992 WC semi-final UPDATES The published table that underpins the D/L method is regularly updated, most recently in 2004, as it became clear that one-day matches were achieving significantly higher scores than in previous decades, affecting the historical relationship between resources and runs. At the same time as this update, the D/L method was also split into a Professional Edition and a Standard Edition.[http://www.cricinfo.com/link_to_database/ABOUT_CRICKET/RAIN_RULES/DL_FAQ.html Rain affected rules] from Cricinfo . The main difference is that while the Standard Edition preserves the use of a single table and simple calculation – suitable for use in any one-day cricket match at any level – the Professional Edition uses substantially more sophisticated statistical modeling, and requires the use of a computer. The Professional Edition has been in use in all international one-day cricket matches since early 2004. CRITICISM The D/L method has been criticized based on the fact that wickets are (necessarily) a much more heavily weighted resource than overs, leading to the observation that if teams are chasing big targets, and there is the prospect of rain, a winning strategy could be to not lose wickets and score at what would seem to be a "losing" rate (e.g. if the asking rate was 6.1, it could be enough to score at 4.75 an over for the first 20-25 overs).Bhogle, Srinivas, The Duckworth/Lewis Factor , rediff.com. Another criticism is that the D/L method does not account for changes in the number of overs during which field restrictions are in place.Booth, Shane, quoted in For a Fair Formula , Hindu Online. More common informal criticism from cricket fans and journalists of the Duckworth-Lewis method is that it is unclear and often gives counter-intuitive results. REFERENCES FURTHER READING
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