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Transportation safety has steadily improved in the United States for many decades. Between 1920 and 2000, the rate of fatal Automobile Accidents per vehicle- Mile decreased by a factor of about 17.1 2 Except for a pause during the 1960s, progress in reducing fatal accidents has been steady. Safety for other types of U.S. Passenger Transportation has also improved substantially, but long-term Statistical Data are not as readily available. Following an approach used by several writers,3 4 one can compare the Likelihood of a fatal accident While Driving and While Flying with a scheduled Airline . This is most meaningful for trips in which either mode of Transportation is a reasonable alternative. For the U.S., a typical trip of this sort is from the Boston , MA, area to the Washington , DC, area, about 6 hours door-to-door by Air Travel and 7 hours door-to-door by Automobile . To compare typical Risk s, one can use the U.S. average fatal Automobile Accident rate of 1.5 per 100 million vehicle- Miles for 2000 See reference {Link without Title} and the U.S. average fatal scheduled Airline Accident rate of 0.18 per million flight segments for 1995-2005:5 Risk estimation By air By auto Flight segments 1 0 Risk (millionths) 0.2 0 Miles driven 40 450 Risk (millionths) 0.6 6.8 Total risk (millionths) 0.8 6.8 The Likelihood of a fatal accident, estimated for this trip in this way, is about eight times greater when driving than when flying. As shown in this case, the largest part of the risk of flying is often the risk incurred driving to and from airports. SEE ALSO REFERENCES AND NOTES |
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