Technology Foresight Article Index for
Technology
Website Links For
Technology
 

Information About

Technology Foresight




Foresight brings together key people, knowledge and ideas to look beyond normal planning horizons to identify potential opportunities from new science and technologies and actions to help realise those opportunities.

This work is supported by the Horizon Scanning Centre , whose aims are to inform decision-making both within UK government departments and across departments; to support horizon scanning being carried out by others inside and outside government; and, spot the implications of emerging science and technology and enable others to act on them.

Reports published by Foresight, along with information about the programme past, present and future, are available on the Foresight website .

= History and Structure =

In May 1993, the British Government launched a White Paper entitled ''Realising our Potential - A Strategy for Science, Engineering and Technology'' which emphasised the importance of science, engineering and technology to wealth creation and the quality of life while sustaining a strong science and engineering base in the UK.

The White Paper launched a Technology Foresight Programme, led by the UK Governemnt Chief Scientific Advisor, with the aim of ensuring closer interaction between scientists, industry and government to identify future opportunities and threats for science engineering and technology.


1ST ROUND OF FORESIGHT (1994 – 1999)


The first round of ''Foresight'' was launched in 1994 and brought together experts from industry, government and academia into 16 sector-facing Panels to explore opportunities in different sectors of the economy. During the main analysis phase, these panels considered emerging market and technological opportunities over a 20-year timescale, consequent priorities for research, and other actions needed to exploit them.
  • Agriculture, Horticulture & Forestry

  • Chemicals

  • Construction

  • Defence & Aerospace

  • Energy

  • Financial Services

  • Food & Drink

  • Health & Life Sciences

  • IT, Electronics & Communications

  • Leisure & Learning

  • Manufacturing, Production & Business Processes

  • Marine

  • Materials

  • Natural Resources & Environment

  • Retail & Distribution

  • Transport


Following widespread consultation involving some 10,000 people the panels published their first findings in 1995, identifying 360+ recommendations for action. The reports aimed to identify the likely social, economic and market trends in each sector over the next 10-20 years and the developments in science, engineering, technology and infrastructure required to best address future needs.


2ND ROUND OF FORESIGHT (1999 – 2002)


The second round of ''Foresight'' began in April 1999. Work was taken forward through a combination of 3 thematic and 10 sector panels, each looking at the future for a particular area of the economy:
  • Ageing Population

  • Built Environment & Transport

  • Chemicals

  • Crime Prevention

  • Defence, Aerospace & Systems

  • Energy & Natural Environment

  • Financial Services

  • Food Chain & Crops for Industry

  • Healthcare

  • Information, Communications & Media

  • Manufacturing 2020

  • Marine

  • Materials

  • Retail & Consumer Services


This round moved beyond the technology focus of the first round to examine the opportunities that arose from the interaction of innovations in science and technology with wider social and market trends. All panels were asked to consider the implications of their findings for education, skills and training and sustainable development.

Each ''Foresight'' panel looked at the future for a particular area, identifying the challenges and opportunities that the country was likely face over the next 10-20 years and beyond. These panels and their task forces, published reports in December 2000.


CURRENT PHASE OF FORESIGHT (2002 - )


In 2000, Lord Sainsbury , the UK Science Minister, announced a review which found that the programme needed to refocus on science and technology; be more flexible to take account of emerging developments; and to focus resources more clearly on where they would best add value. The programme has moved away from a structure of standing panels to a new fluid, rolling programme of projects.

For a topic to be shortlisted as a possible project the ''Foresight'' team has to satisfy themselves through the results of the consultation that the following criteria have been met:
  • Be future-oriented, and based upon science and technology

  • Not duplicate work taking place elsewhere

  • Have action-oriented outcomes that can be influenced by the work of the project

  • Have buy-in and commitment from all key stakeholders; and

  • Involve cross-disciplinary science and technology, and cross-Departmental policy issues.


Each project reviews research literature and undertakes horizon scanning, taking into account relevant social and economic trends. Participants are supported by in-house teams, including individuals with relevant research experience, able to help pull together information and make the right cross-connections. A network of experts and stakeholders also work closely with the Foresight project teams.

Futures techniques are used to ensure current trends and currently known technologies are not simply projected forward. This can involve using tools such as scenario planning, but the methods and extent of this element of the work varies depending on what the project is covering. A ''Foresight'' project does not predict the future, but on the basis of a thorough understanding and analysis of the subject in its broadest perspective and an awareness of different ways the future may develop identifies a range of possible outcomes. The purpose of this is to assist decision makers now on how their decisions might affect the future, and what decisions they need to consider in the light of the possible impact the identified outcome may have on society in the future.

All ''Foresight'' projects should deliver:
  • thorough, up-to-date information and analysis of recent developments in relevant science and technology, including an international perspective, and forecasts of what the next developments might be;

  • visions of the future, reflecting the potential impact of science and technology, and of forecast social and economic trends, i.e. what success will look like;

  • recommendations for action, by research funders, business, Government or others, to make the most of the potential of science and technology;

  • networks of people who recognise the importance of the issues addressed by the project, and are keen to take the recommendations forward.