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In Future Studies and the History Of Technology , the law of accelerating returns, proposed by Raymond Kurzweil in his 2001 essay of the same name, is a generalization of Moore's Law describing an Exponential Growth of Technological progress. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Kurzweil extends this to include technologies from far before the integrated circuit to future forms of computation. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, he writes, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He predicts that such Paradigm Shift s will become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history." He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a Technological Singularity will occur before the end of the 21st Century . The essay begins: "An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light." Kurzweil's Law has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's Law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Kurzweil. According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of Evolution , more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (''to intentionally design with efficiency'') a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, ''i.e. Language , numbers, written language, Philosophy , Scientific Method , instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers'', each of these a major advance in our ability to account for information occurring increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st Century , leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books '' The Age Of Spiritual Machines '' and '' The Singularity Is Near ''. PRECURSORS Many Sociologists and Anthropologists have created Social Theories dealing with social and cultural evolution. Some, like Lewis H. Morgan , Leslie White , and Gerhard Lenski , declare technological progress to be the primary factor driving the development of human civilization. Morgan's concept of three major stages of social evolution ( Savagery , Barbarism , and Civilization ) can be divided by technological milestones, like Fire , the Bow , and Pottery in the savage era, Domestication Of Animals , Agriculture , and Metalworking in the barbarian era and the Alphabet and Writing in the civilization era. Instead of specific inventions, White decided that the measure by which to judge the evolution of culture was . s granted, 1870–2005]]
Lenski takes a more modern approach and focuses on Information . The more information and knowledge (especially allowing the shaping of natural environment) a given society has, the more advanced it is. He identifies four stages of human development, based on advances in the History Of Communication . In the first stage, information is passed by Gene s. In the second, when humans gain Intelligence , they can Learn and pass information by experience. In the third, the humans start using Signs and develop Logic . In the fourth, they can create Symbol s, develop Language and Writing . Advancements in the technology of communication translates into advancements in the Economic System and Political System , Distribution Of Goods , Social Inequality and other spheres of social life. He also differentiates societies based on their level of technology, communication and economy: (1) hunters and gatherers, (2) simple agricultural, (3) advanced agricultural, (4) industrial (5) special (like fishing societies). Finally, from the late 1970s sociologist and anthropologists like Alvin Toffler (author of Future Shock ), Daniel Bell and John Naisbitt have approached the theories of Postindustrial Societies , arguing that the current era of Industrial Society is coming to an end, and Service s and information are becoming more important than Industry and Good s. Some of the more extreme visions of the postindustrial society, especially in Fiction , envision the elimination of Economic Scarcity and are strikingly similar to the visions of near and post-Singularity societies. CRITICISMS showing an exponentially accelerating trend towards increasing frequency of major events, as chosen by Kurzweil, in human and natural history. Some critics of Kurzweil's theory dispute the choice of such specific events.]] Some claim the Exponential Growth of technological progress may become linear or inflected or may begin to flatten into a limited-growth curve. In this model, instead of an overall acceleration of progress, technological advance jumps forward whenever there is a human "buy in" and stalls whenever there is no benefit large enough to Profit the technologists, and therefore never gets steep enough to be considered a singularity. Examples of large human "buy-ins" into technology include the Computer Revolution , as well as massive government projects like the Manhattan Project and the Human Genome Project . The foundation organizing the Methuselah Mouse Prize believes Aging Research could be the subject of such a massive project if substantial progress is made in slowing or reversing Cellular Aging in mice. Both . Choosing technological "milestones", defining the meaning of technological "growth", and similar semantic exercises often include significant subjectivity, and are therefore easily criticized. For example, it can be claimed that inventions are generally created by a fixed population of human inventors at a constant rate, regardless of their current technological prowess, and therefore technological "progress" is actually a function of population growth, not past inventions (at least until non-human inventors are invented). GALLERY Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns. |
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINTjpgExponential Growth In
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