| Clive Granger |
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He was born in Swansea , Wales , and educated at the University Of Nottingham , England where he was an undergraduate and postgraduate student, and subsequently became a full professor. In all, he spent 22 years at the University before leaving for UCSD in 1974. In 2005, the building that houses the Economics and Geography Departments at the University of Nottingham was renamed the Sir Clive Granger Building in honour of his Nobel achievement. Sir Clive Granger is married to Lady Patricia, and has two children, Mark and Claire. Clive Granger’s great breakthroughs concerned the relationships between different financial or economic variables over time. He showed that traditional statistical methods could be misleading if applied to variables that tend to wander over time without returning to some long-run resting point. He also demonstrated that many variables display similar long-run patterns that can be exploited in statistical analysis. Combining several of these variables can create a joint variable that returns to a resting point, allowing traditional methods to be used. For example, economic forces such as uneven technological progress cause consumption and income to grow over time, but other economic forces, such as constraints on budgets, make them follow similar paths (“Cointegration”). This discovery not only led to significant breakthroughs in statistics and macroeconomic forecasting, but also to an important reconciliation between macroeconomic theory and data. Clive Granger also developed a formal statistical notion of causality based on which variables help to predict other variables. His discovery is widely used and is commonly known as Granger Causality . While at UCSD he was famously photographed astride a powerful motorbike with the photo eventually captioned "Rebel without a causal model". He received his Nobel Prize "for methods of analyzing economic Time Series with common trends ( Cointegration )". He has said that the Norwegian Economy is the best in the world. He was knighted in the 2005 New Year's Honours. He teaches for 2 months a year at the University Of Melbourne , Australia. SELECTED WORKS Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing (with Robert Engle), Econometrica 55 (1987): 251-276. SEE ALSO Modeling And Analysis Of Financial Markets |
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