| Bell's Law Of Computer Classes |
Article Index for Bell's |
Website Links For Bells |
Information AboutBell's Law Of Computer Classes |
|
Definition: Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage. BELL'S LAW OF COMPUTER CLASS FORMATION Established market class computers aka platforms are introduced and continue to evolve at roughly a constant price (subject to learning curve cost reduction) with increasing functionality (or performance) based on Moore's Law that gives more transistors per die, more bits per magnetic areal density, or functionality per system. Roughly every decade, technology advances in semiconductors, storage, networks, and interfaces enable a new, lower cost computer class aka platform to form to serve a new need that is enabled by smaller devices e.g. less transistors per chip, less expensive storage, displays, i/o, network, and interface. Each new lower priced class is then established and maintained as a quasi independent industry and market. Such a class is likely to evolve to substitute for an existing class or classes. COMPUTERS CLASSES THAT HAVE FORMED BASED ON BELL'S LAW In 2005 the computer classes include: mainframes (60's); Minicomputers (70's); personal computers and workstations evolving into a network enabled by Local Area Networking or Ethernet (80's); web browser client-server structure that were enabled by the Internet (90's); web services e.g. Microsoft's .Net (2000's); cell phone sized devices c(2000?); Wireless Sensor Networks aka motes (>c2005?). Bell predicts home and body area networks will form by 2010. In 2005, Bell believes i.e. is betting that cell phone sized devices (CPSD) e.g. cell phones, Blackberries, iPods, Smartphones, and Treos will form a dominant computer class or platform measured by units and revenue. These evolve from the phone and PDA functions to include new "killer applications" yet to be determined. Furthermore, CPSD will substitute for many Personal Computer functions e.g. email, web browsing. Use will evolve with or without attachments e.g. keyboards, displays for document creation, presentations, to include almost all of the PC's functions except large file stores for A/V content. Beginning in the 1990s, a single class of scalable computers or mega-servers also called clusters built from a few to tens of thousands of commodity microcomputer-storage-networked bricks began to cover and replace mainframes, minis, and workstations to become the largest computers of the day or what is commonly called a supercomputer. HISTORY OF BELL'S LAW Bell's Law of Computer Classes and Class formation was first described in 1972 by Gordon Bell . The emergence and observation of a new, lower priced microcomputer class based on the microprocessor stimulated the creation of the law that Bell described in several of Bell's books. See also the several laws (e.g. Moore's Law , Metcalfe's Law , Bill (Gates)'s Law , Nathan (Myhrvold)'s Law that govern the computer industry. Bell's Law of Computer Class formation describes how computer classes that we call platforms form and evolve through the introduction of new, usually smaller semiconductors, storage, networks, and interfaces, that create new usage resulting in new markets. The law may be considered to be a corollary to Moore's Law that describes getting twice as many transistors per chip every 18 months. Unlike Moore's Law, a new computer class is based on lower cost components that have fewer transistors or less bits on a magnetic surface, etc. A new class forms about every decade. Also, it takes up to a decade to really understand how the class formed, evolved, and is likely to continue. Once formed, a lower priced class may evolve in performance to take over and disrupt an existing class as has been the case with clusters of scalable personal computers with 1 to thousands of computers span a range of use from a PC, through mainframes, to become the largest supercomputers of the day. Definition: Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage. |
|
|