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THE CYCLES OF WAR The forerunner of the study of war cycles was Edward R Dewey with Quincy Wright 's monumental ''A Study of War'' adding impetus to the discipline. The credibility of the study of cycles was frequently questioned, as this type of inquiry attracts persons with marginal credibility and interest in paranormal issues. However, with advent of Computer Algorithm s minimizing the Dampening Effect affecting the abstracted oscillations and facilitating the detection of Stochastic Drift s, the study of cycles is subject to renewed interest. INFLECTION POINTS OF WAR CYCLES In the judgment of the Nuremberg Tribunal , war of aggression is the Supreme Crime and there is hardly other issue that is more relevant to the Social Sciences than the study of the Decision-making Process when a person or a group of persons decides that another group of people must face death. Historians speculated about this decision-making process for centuries without reaching Consensus , as wars are complex Phenomena with multiple Determinant s. The decision to initiate a war marks an inflection point of the war- Peace cycle and the decision to cease hostilities marks the end of a particular cycle. Comparative studies of war cycles can contribute to explication of facets of this decision-making process. Most relevant of these facets are those that help us to identify the preventable factors influencing the decision to initiate (and to terminate) a war. COMPARATIVE STUDIES Quantitative studies of bellicosity of the Western Civilization and Confucian Civilization of the East was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson . Richardson studies led him to conclusion that ''" Confucian - Taoist - Buddhist Religion of China stands out conspicuously as being either itself a pacifier, or else associated with one"'' and that ''"it seems probable that the comparative peacefulness of China prior to 1911 was the result of instruction, and in particular of Confucian instruction."'' Richardson's findings were based on data spanning about a century. Study by Krus, Nelsen, & Webb (1998) lengthened his perspective for the wars of the Western civilization by about 3 centuries (Fig. 1) and for the Eastern Civilization by about 17 centuries (Fig. 2). In Fig. 2, the 220 - 618 time interval corresponds to the period in Chinese History , called the ''Period Of Disunion'' (also called the Chinese Dark Ages), when Confucius' teachings were abandoned. Krus ''et al.'' (1998) concluded that ''"In the Empire of China, when the Confucian Philosophy was predominant, the peace lasted significantly longer than in the West. When Confucian teachings were abandoned, the frequency of warfare approximated that observed for the Western countries."'' ETHICAL CANONS Pacific ethics of the Western civilization are based to a degree on Ethical teachings of Monotheistic religions. These religious canons are quite effective in preventing violence by individuals, but less successful in preventing the collective violence. Within this context Marc Ellis (1997, p.134), called ''"one of the most influential Jewish thinkers of his generation,"'' observes that ::''"Jews who act on behalf of justice go elsewhere for their spiritual needs. This also may be the reason so many Jews are attracted to Buddhism and Hinduism . Feeling that (traditional) theology provides little spiritual nourishment, they choose East instead."'' Results of the comparative studies of the war cycles support Lewis Richardson's observations of the relative peacefulness of China prior to 1911. Richardson asks the question: ::''"If China could thus be made peaceable by Confucian instruction in pacific ethics, why not the whole world?"'' Richardson's conclusions are echoed by Krus and Webb (2001): ::''"As the religious factors are paramount in shaping value systems, one may look for the alternatives to the mainstream religions, to systems that erect barriers against the group-sponsored violence: Eastern religions and philosophies as Confucianism, Buddhism and Hinduism, modern Black and Latin American Liberation Theologies of James H. Cone and Gustavo Gutierrez , and secular value systems perhaps best represented by Noam Chomsky ."'' Experience of a large segment of humanity over a time interval spanning millennia indicates that a peaceful civilization can exist without subscribing to religious precepts of monotheistic religions and that a secular ethic system, epitomized by that of Confucius , is likely one of the factors lessening the probability of a decision to initiate a war. REFERENCES
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