This is a ''', Russia (formerly the Soviet Union ), the United Kingdom , France , and the People's Republic Of China . Since the formulation of the NPT, two non-signatory states of the NPT have conducted Nuclear Tests — India and Pakistan . Israel is also strongly suspected to have an arsenal of nuclear weapons though it has never confirmed or denied this, and there have been reports that over 100 nuclear weapons might be in its inventory. This status is not formally recognised by international bodies; none of these three countries is currently a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. South Africa once possessed nuclear weapons but has since destroyed its arsenal. North Korea has publicly declared itself to possess nuclear weapons though it has not conducted any confirmed tests and its ultimate status is still unknown. Iran has been accused by Western nations of attempting to develop uranium enrichment technology for weapons purposes. As of February 4 , 2006 , the International Atomic Energy Agency referred Iran to the United Nations Security Council in response to Western concerns on their possible nuclear programs.
Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles
The following is a list of Nation s that have admitted the possession of Nuclear Weapons , the approximate number of Warhead s under their control in 2002, and the year they tested their first weapon. This list is informally known in global politics as the "Nuclear Club". Note that with the exception of Russia and the United States (which have subjected their nuclear forces to independent verification under various treaties) these figures are estimates, in some cases quite unreliable estimates. Also, these figures represent total warheads possessed, rather than deployed. In particular, under the SORT treaty thousands of Russian and US nuclear warheads are in inactive stockpiles awaiting processing. The contained radioactive fuel can then be recycled for use in nuclear reactors that drive nuclear power plants and some military submarines and warships.
From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there were about 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed.Webster, Paul (July/August 2003). "Just like old times," ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' 59:4: 30-35. '' {Link without Title} ''
[[Image:Nuclear weapon programs worldwide.png|thumb|300px|World map with nuclear weapons
development status represented by color. Red: Five "nuclear weapons states" from the NPT. '''Dark orange''': Other known nuclear powers. '''Yellow''': States suspected of having possession of, or suspected of being in the process of developing, nuclear weapons and/or nuclear programs. '''Purple''': States which at one point had nuclear weapons and/or nuclear weapons research programs. '''Green''': Other states capable of developing nuclear weapons within several years if the decision to do so were made.]]
- All numbers are estimates from the Natural Resources Defense Council , published in the '' Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists '', unless other references are given. If differences between active and total stockpile are known, they are given as two figures separated by a forward slash. If no specifics are known, only one figure is given. Stockpile number may not contain all intact warheads if a substantial amount of warheads are scheduled for but have not yet gone through dismantlement; not all "active" warheads are deployed at any given time. When a spread of weapons is given (e.g., 0-10), it generally indicates that the estimate is being made on the amount of fissile material which has likely been produced, and the amount of fissile material needed per warhead depends on estimates of a country's proficiency at nuclear weapon design.
States that have tested a nuclear weapon
- The '''). It was the first nation to develop the Hydrogen Bomb , testing it (" Ivy Mike ") in 1952 and a deployable version in 1954 (" Castle Bravo ").
- The ). The direct motivation for their weapons development was the development of a balance of power during the Cold War . It tested a primitive hydrogen bomb in 1953 (" Joe-4 ") and a megaton-range hydrogen bomb in 1955 (" RDS-37 "). Soviet Union also tested the most powerful explosive ever detonated by humans, (" Tsar Bomba "), which had yield of 100 megatons, but was intentionally reduced to 50. After its dissolution in 1991, its weapons entered officially into the possession of Russia '''.
- The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon (" Hurricane ") in 1952, drawing largely on data gained while collaborating with the United States during the Manhattan Project. Its program was motivated to have an independent deterrence against the USSR, while also remaining relevant in Cold War Europe. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1957.
- '''). It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1968.
- The People's Republic Of China tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964, much to the surprise of Western intelligence agencies. It had long sought assistance in becoming a nuclear power from an uneasy USSR, but assistance stopped after the Sino-Soviet Split and the weapon was developed as a deterrent against both the USA and the USSR. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1967 at Lop Nur . The country is currently thought to have had a stockpile of 400 warheads since the early 1980s, though with considerably fewer than this actually deployed.Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Chinese nuclear forces, 2003," ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' 59:6 (Nov/Dec 2003): 77-80, '' Lewis, Jeffery. "The ambiguous arsenal," ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' 61:3 (May/June 2005): 52-59. ''[http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj05lewis ''.
- India tested a "peaceful nuclear device", as it was described by Indian government, in 1974 (" Smiling Buddha "), the first test developed after the creation of the NPT, and created new questions about how civilian nuclear technology could be diverted secretly to weapons purposes ( Dual-use Technology ). It appears to have been primarily motivated as a deterrent against China. Canada cut off peaceful nuclear power aid (a CANDU reactor that was, however, not the source of the bomb material) when India exploded its weapon. It tested weaponized nuclear warheads in 1998 (" Operation Shakti "), including a hydrogen bomb (though the yield of this device is debated with some speculation that the secondary fusion stage failed to ignite). In July 2005, it was officially recognized by the United States as a "responsible nuclear" state and agreed to full nuclear cooperation between the two nations. This is seen as an "official" entry into the nuclear club of the above nations.
- Pakistan covertly developed its nuclear weapons over many decades , beginning in the late 1970s. It is contended that Pakistan began its nuclear development programs in response to India's nuclear device. It is unknown when Pakistan began its nuclear development projects, but by the 1980s it was suspected of having successfully developed nuclear warheads. However, this was to remain speculative until 1998 when Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests at the Chagai Hills , a few days after India conducted its own tests.
Suspected nuclear states
Countries believed to have at least one nuclear weapon, or programs with a realistic chance of producing a nuclear weapon in the near future:
,
- Israel - Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny having a nuclear arsenal, or to having developed nuclear weapons, or even to having a nuclear weapons program. Although Israel claims that Dimona is a "research reactor," no scientific reports based on work done there have ever been published. Extensive information about the program in Dimona was also disclosed by technician Mordechai Vanunu in 1986. Imagery analysts can identify weapon bunkers, mobile missile launchers, and launch sites in satellite photographs. It is believed to possess nuclear weapons by the International Atomic Energy Agency . Israel may have tested a nuclear weapon along with South Africa in 1979 (see Vela Incident ). According to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Federation Of American Scientists , they may possess 300-400 weapons, a figure which would put them above the median in the declared list.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (August 17, 2000). '' Israel's Nuclear Weapons ''
- North Korea - On January 10 , 2003 North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty . In February 2005 they claimed to possess functional nuclear weapons, though their lack of a test has led many experts to question whether or not they have a working weapon.
States suspected of having clandestine nuclear programs
The question of whether individual states without nuclear weapons are trying to develop them is often a controversial one. Accusations of clandestine nuclear programs are often vehemently denied, and may be politically motivated themselves, or simply erroneous. Below are countries who have been accused by a number of governments and intergovernmental agencies as currently attempting to develop nuclear weapons technology who are not suspected as yet having developed it.
, Iran , Yellowcake is converted into Uranium Hexafluoride as part of Iran's nuclear fuel cycle, which has been alleged to be part of a clandestine attempt to develop nuclear weapons.]]
- ''' referred Iran to the United Nations Security Council in response to Western concerns on their possible nuclear programs. On April 11 , 2006 , Iran's president announced that the country had successfully enriched uranium to reactor-grade levels for the first time. On April 22 , 2006 , Iran's envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency stated the Islamic republic had reached a "basic deal" with the Kremlin to form a joint uranium enrichment venture on Russian territory. CBS News (April 22, 2006). '' Iran To Enrich Uranium In Russia ''
States formerly possessing nuclear weapons
Nuclear weapons have been present in many nations, often as staging grounds under control of other powers. However, in only a few instances have nations given up nuclear weapons after being in control of them; in most cases this has been because of special political circumstances. The fall of the USSR, for example, left several former Soviet-bloc countries in possession of nuclear weapons.
- Ukraine - signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine inherited about 5,000 nuclear weapons when it became independent from the USSR in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world.globalsecurity.org. '' Ukraine Special Weapons '' By 1996, Ukraine had voluntarily disposed of all nuclear weapons within its territory, transferring them to Russia.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). '' Ukraine Special Weapons ''
- Belarus – Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles stationed in their territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 . They were all returned to Russia by 1996. Belarus signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). '' Belarus Special Weapons ''
- Kazakhstan – Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from Soviet Union, returned them all to Russia by 1995. Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). '' Kazakhstan Special Weapons ''
- South Africa – Produced six nuclear weapons in the 1980s but disassembled them in the early 1990s, and is thus the only nation known to have willingly given up nuclear status after developing their own weapons. Possibly tested a low yield device in 1979, perhaps with Israel, over the southern oceans in the Vela Incident . Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (May 29, 2000). '' Nuclear Weapons Program (South Africa) ''
States formerly possessing nuclear programs
These are nations known to have initiated serious nuclear weapons programs, with varying degrees of success. All of them are now regarded as currently no longer actively developing, or possessing, nuclear arms. All of the listed countries (or their descendants) signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty .
- ''''s, mainly because of rivalry with Brazil . Sharon Squassoni and David Fite, " Brazil's Nuclear History ", ''Arms Control Today'' (October 2005); Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (October 2, 1999). '' Nuclear Weapons Programs - (Brazil) ''
- Australia – Following World War II, Australian defence policy premised joint nuclear weapons development with the United Kingdom . Australia provided uranium, land for weapons and rocket tests, and scientific and engineering expertise. Canberra was also heavily involved in the Blue Streak ballistic missile program. In 1955, a contract was signed with a British company to build the Hi-Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR). HIFAR was considered the first step towards the construction of larger reactors capable of producing substantial volumes of plutonium for nuclear weapons. However, Australia's nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the 1960s, and the country signed the NPT in 1970 (ratified in 1973). ''Green Left Weekly'' (March 21, 2001). Review of '' Australia and the atomic empire ''
- ''' 1998 President Fernando Henrique Cardoso signed and ratified both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), denying that Brazil had developed nuclear weapons.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (October 2, 1999). '' Nuclear Weapons Programs - (Brazil) ''
- Egypt – Had a nuclear weapon research program from 1954 to 1967. Egypt signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (February 4, 2005). '' Nuclear Weapons Program - (Egypt) ''
- ''') Germany is now a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Although it has an advanced science and technology infrastructure and would be capable of creating a nuclear weapons program (and could probably be considered a "nuclear capable" state), the government has decided to decrease even the civil use of nuclear energy.
- Iraq – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Had a nuclear weapon research program during the 1970s and 1980s. In 1981, Israel destroyed Iraqi nuclear reactor Osiraq . In 1996, the UN's Hans Blix reported that Iraq had dismantled or destroyed all of their nuclear capabilities. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, charging that there was evidence the nation had "weapons of mass destruction" that likely included some form of nuclear program. However in 2004 the Duelfer Report concluded Iraq's nuclear program was terminated in 1991.Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.org) (May 2005). '' Iraq profile - Nuclear Overview ''
- '''). Japan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. While Japan has the technological capabilities to develop nuclear weapons in a short time there is no evidence they are doing so. Japan's constitution forbids it from producing nuclear weapons and the country has been active in promoting non-proliferation treaties. There exists some suspicion that nuclear weapons may be located in US bases in Japan.Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.org) (May 2005). '' Japan Overview ''
- Libya – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. On December 19 , 2003 , Libya admitted having had a nuclear weapon program and simultaneously announced its intention to end it and dismantle all existing Weapons of Mass Destruction to be verified by unconditional inspections.Nuclear Threat Initiative (nti.org) (February 2006). '' Libya Nuclear Overview ''
- Philippines – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but the Philippines started its nuclear research program in 1958, creating the Philippine Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) through Republic Act 2067 (Science Act of 1958) enacted by Congress to undertake research and development activities in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government built one facility in Quezon City for nuclear research which consists of a live nuclear reactor and during the early 1980s, under the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos , the government built its first Nuclear Power Plant , the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant in Bataan province in the main island of Luzon , but was never used because of the change of government under the Corazon Aquino administration. Under the present 1987 Philippine Constitution , any kind of nuclear materials are banned from Philippine soil.
- Poland – Nuclear research began in Poland in the early 1960s, with the first controlled nuclear fission reaction being achieved in late 1960s. During the 1970s further research resulted in the generation of fusion neutrons through convergent shockwaves. In the 1980s research focused on the development of micro-nuclear reactions, and was under military control. Currently Poland operates the MARIA nuclear research reactor under the control of the Institute of Atomic Energy, in Świerk near Warsaw. Poland signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and officially possess no nuclear weapons.
- Romania – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970. In spite of this, under Nicolae Ceauşescu , in the 1980s, Romania had a secret nuclear-weapons development program, that was stopped after the overthrow of Ceauşescu in 1989. Now Romania runs a nuclear power plant of two reactor units (with three more under construction) built with Canadian support. It also mines and enriches its own uranium for the plant and has a research program.Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). '' Romania Special Weapons ''
- ''')
- Sweden – During the 1950s and 1960s, Sweden seriously investigated nuclear weapons, intended to be deployed over coastal facilities of an invading enemy (the Soviet Union). A very substantial research effort of weapon design and manufacture was conducted resulting in enough knowledge to allow Sweden to manufacture nuclear weapons. A weapon research facility was to be built in Studsvik . Saab made plans for a supersonic nuclear bomber, the ''A36''. However Sweden decided not to pursue a weapon production program and signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Switzerland – Between 1946 and 1969 Switzerland had a secret nuclear program that came into light in 1995. By 1963 theoretical basics with detailed technical proposals, specific arsenals, and cost estimates for Swiss nuclear armaments were made. This program was, however, abandoned partly because of financial costs and by signing the NPT on November 27 , 1969 .
- The '''.Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.org) (January 2003). '' Taiwan Overview ''
- Yugoslavia
- --- Socialist Federal Republic Of Yugoslavia 's nuclear ambitions began as early as 1950s when scientists considered both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. In 1956, the Vinča fuel reprocessing site was constructed, followed by research reactors in 1958 and 1959, for which the Soviets provided heavy water and enriched uranium. In 1966, plutonium reprocessing tests began in Vinča laboratories, resulting in gram quantities of reprocessed plutonium. During the 1950s and 1960s there was also cooperation in plutonium processing between Yugoslavia and Norway. In 1960 Tito froze the nuclear program for unknown reasons, but restarted it, after India's first nuclear tests, in 1974. The program continued even after Tito's death in 1980, divided into two components – for weapons design and civilian nuclear energy, until a decision to stop all nuclear weapons research was made in July 1987. The civilian nuclear program however resulted in a nuclear power plant Krško built in 1983, now co-owned by Slovenia and Croatia , and used for peaceful production of electricity.
- --- Federal Republic Of Yugoslavia inherited the Vinča laboratories and 50 kilograms of highly enriched uranium stored at the site. During the NATO Bombing Of Yugoslavia in 1999, Vinča was never hit because NATO was aware of the HEU; indeed, it may have been a reason for the NATO intervention. After the end of NATO bombings the U.S. government and the Nuclear Threat Initiative transported the HEU to Russia – the place from which Yugoslavia originally acquired it.
Other nuclear-capable states
Virtually any industrialized nation today has the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons within several years if the decision to do so were made. Nations already possessing substantial nuclear technology and arms industries could do so in no more than a year or two, perhaps even as fast as a few months or weeks, if they so decided to. The larger industrial nations (Japan and Germany for example) could, within several years of deciding to do so, build arsenals rivaling those of the states that already have nuclear weapons. This list below mentions some notable capabilities possessed by certain states that could potentially be turned to the development of nuclear arsenals. This list represents ''only'' strong nuclear capability, not the political will to develop weapons. All of the listed countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Canada - Canada has a well developed nuclear technology base, large Uranium reserves and markets Reactor s for civilian use. While Canada has the technological capabilities to develop nuclear weapons, there is no hard evidence it has done so, nor has Canada ever shown the intention to join the nuclear club outright. Canada has been an important contributor of both expertise and raw materials to the American program in the past, and had even helped with the Manhattan Project . In 1959, NATO proposed to Canada that the RCAF assume a nuclear strike role in Europe. Thus in 1962 six Canadian CF-104 squadrons based in Europe were formed into the RCAF Nuclear Strike Force armed with B28 Nuclear Bomb s (originally Mk 28) under the NATO Nuclear Weapons Sharing Program ; the Force was disbanded in 1972 when Canada opted out of the nuclear strike role. Canada accepted having American W-40 nuclear warheads under Dual Key control on Canadian soil in 1963 to be used on the Canadian BOMARC Missile s. The Canadian air force also maintained a stockpile of AIR-2 Genie unguided nuclear air-to-air rockets as the primary wartime weapon on the CF-101 Voodoo all-weather interceptor after 1965. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau declared Canada would be a nuclear weapon-free country in 1971, and the last American warheads were withdrawn in 1984.
- ''', 2006 , the former defence minister, Rupert Scholz , said that Germany may need to build its own nuclear weapons to counter terrorist threats. "Germany May Need Own Nuclear Weapons: Scholz" by DPA, Liberty Post, January 26, 2006
- Japan - While Japan has no political will for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, the country does make extensive use of nuclear energy in nuclear reactors, generating a significant percentage of the electricity in Japan. Japan has the third largest nuclear energy production after the U.S. and France, and plans to produce over 40% of its electricity using nuclear power by 2010. Significant amounts of Plutonium are created as a by-product of the energy production, and Japan had 4.7 tons of plutonium in December 1995. Experts believe Japan has the technology, raw materials, and the capital to produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some analysts consider it a " De Facto " nuclear state for this reason. Others have noted that Japan's most advanced Space Exploration Rocket , the M-5 three-stage solid fuel rocket, is in fact a close copy of the U.S. LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM . Japan has been quietly reconsidering its nuclear status because of the ongoing crisis over North Korean nuclear weapons. ''Washington Times'' (August 8, 2005). '' North Korean threat nudges Japan to rethink nukes ''
- Italy - Italy has operated a number of nuclear reactors, both for power and for research. The country was also a base for the GLCM nuclear-armed ground-launched variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile during the 1980s, despite strong public outcry. While no evidence suggests that Italy intends to develop or deploy nuclear weapons, such a capability exists - estimates from as far back as the mid-80s show that Italy could begin and complete a nuclear weapons program in as little as 2 to 3 years.
- Lithuania - Nuclear power reactors produce 77% of Lithuania's electricity and it has 2 of the world's most powerful reactors in its territory. However, one of these reactors was recently shut down. Lithuania has the means of legally acquiring fissile materials for power plants. Lithuania also has former launch sites for Soviet Union missiles. However, there is no political will at present to develop nuclear weapons in Lithuania.
- Netherlands - Operates a power reactor at Borsele , producing 452 MW, which satisfies 5% of its electrical needs and has an advanced nuclear research and medical isotopes facility at Petten . Several Dutch companies are key participants in the tri-national Urenco uranium enrichment consortium. By the year 2000 the Netherlands had about 2 tonnes of separated reactor grade plutonium. There is no evidence for nuclear weapon programs in the Netherlands. Also in light of the fierce opposition against nuclear weapon deployment in the 1980s, it is highly unlikely that such a program will ever exist.
- ''' rockets south of the capital Riyadh."Saudia Arabia working on secret nuclear program with Pakistan help - report ", ''AFX News'' Pakistan has denied aiding Saudi Arabia in any nuclear ambitions."[http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006\story_30-3-2006_pg1_4 Pakistan rejects report on N-help to Saudis ", ''Daily Times'' (Pakistan), (30 March 2006).
See also
Notes
External links
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