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A key element of all management is being able to anticipate what competitors, employees and customers are likely to do next, in the context of a rapidly changing wider world. Thus it is true that to some extent all effective leaders are futurists. Future Thinking A key part of futuring is managing uncertainty and risk. Some trends are relatively clear - for example the fall of telecom costs towards zero or the ageing demographics of many countries in Western Europe. The isssue is often more about timing than the nature of the events themselves. But others are very hard to predict, including significant numbers of so-called ''Wild Cards'', or low probability, but high impact events. See Futures Studies Quotations on the Future ''Study the past if you would divine the future'' Confucius ''Take hold of your future or the future will take hold of you'' - Patrick Dixon - Futurewise publ 2005 |