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Gompertz-makeham Law Of Mortality




The Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality describes the age dynamics of human mortality rather accurately in the age window of about 30-80 years. At more advanced ages the death rates do not increase as fast as predicted by this mortality law - a phenomenon known as the Late-life Mortality Deceleration .

Historical decline in human Mortality before 1950s was mostly due to decrease in the age-independent mortality component (Makeham parameter), while the age-dependent mortality component (the Gompertz function) was surprisingly stable in history before 1950s. After that a new mortality trend has started leading to unexpected decline in mortality rates at advanced ages and ' De-rectagularization ' of the survival curve.

In terms of Reliability Theory the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality represents a failure law, where the hazard rate is a mixture of non-aging failure distribution, and the aging failure distribution with exponential increase in failure rates.


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FURTHER READING



  • Gavrilov, L.A., Nosov, V.N. A new trend in human mortality decline: derectangularization of the survival curve. Age, 1985, 8(3): 93-93.


  • Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S., Nosov, V.N. Human life span stopped increasing: Why? Gerontology, 1983, 29(3): 176-180. PMID 6852544