will be held on November 7 2006 , with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009 .
The 2006 Senate Election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state Governors .
The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans , 201 Democrats , and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). There are two seats vacant: and ; the former will be filled in a special election before the 2006 election, but the latter will remain vacant.
Republicans hold a 30 seat advantage, so Democrats would need to pick up 16 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995.
It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.
There are currently 28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies make 30 open seats total. One of them will be filled before the general election, while one will be vacant until the next Congress. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats, and 1 is held by an independent. The vacant seat which will be filled before the general election was held by a Republican and the other vacant seat was held by a Democrat.
- — Incumbent Rick Renzi is well-known for his strong, arguably extreme Conservative positions in a district that is moderately conservative at best. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, reelected by just 6,000 votes. The Federal Election Commission has concluded that he used illegal funds to finance his 2004 reelection campaign, and he is currently under investigation for contracts he steered towards his father's defense company in Arizona . Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic Stem Cell Research , which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay 's ARMPAC , despite calls from Democrats to do so. Citizens For Responsibility And Ethics In Washington has said that Renzi the among the most corrupt members of the House of Representatives.
- — Incumbent (although only 50% in 2000 ). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for 2 decades, often with high margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a social conservative stronghold. The Democratic candidates include ex-Air Force fighter pilot Jeff Latas, veteran and Raytheon employee Alex Rodriguez, former government employee Francine Shacter, former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1 2005 in preparation for her Congressional campaign, businessman Dwight Leister, and former top-rated news anchor Patty Weiss who was the most recent Democrat to enter the race after a 34-year broadcasting career. Republican Randy Graf , a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running on the Republican ticket as well as veteran and small business owner Mike Hellon.
- — Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act ; the considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environment may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney , joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson , is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee . Additionally, Pombo will be challenged for the Republican nomination by former Rep. Pete McCloskey , one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act . The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley well east of the San Francisco Bay Area and leans Republican.
- — Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas , a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents agricultural Central Valley , a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy has announced his run for the GOP nomination. McCarthy is very popular in the Central Valley. foxnews.com
- — Incumbent a local businessman running on an anti- Illegal Immigration platform will run against Dreier in the GOP primary.
- — (''Main: California 50th Congressional District Special Election, 2006 . By November 7 , 2006 , there should be an incumbent representative.)'' Republican Duke Cunningham announced on July 14 , 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. On November 28 , 2005 , he resigned his house seat after confessing to taking Bribes from the defense contractor. A Special Election to fill the vacancy took place on April 11 , 2006 . The winner of that election will likely then vie for a complete term in the 2006 elections. This district included the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican. Candidates included on the Republican side former State Assemblymen Howard Kaloogian , State Senator Bill Morrow , Brian Bilbray , and businessman Alan Uke . The Democrats currently have Cardiff School Board Trustee Francine Busby running. Busby garnered 37% against Cunningham's 58% in 2004. Kaloogian was embarrassed when his web page showed a picture of an Istanbul , Turkey neighborhood and claimed the picture was taken in Baghdad , Iraq . In the runoff, Busby won 44%, which is ahead of the normal Democratic vote in the area, but not spectacular. She will face Bilbray in the June runoff. Bilbray is favored to win, though not assured of victory.
- — Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver . Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken ), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado . Currently Republican Businessman Scott Tipton is planning to run.
- — Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16 , 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term. This seat is still considered a safe Republican seat. Former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera , state Senator Doug Lamborn , and former Congressional aide Jeff Crank are the declared Republican candidates thus far in the race. Democrat Jay Fawcett , who served 20 years in the Air Force and fought in the 1991 Gulf War, is the first Democrat to announce that he is running. Because of the conservative nature of the district, which President Bush won by 30 points in 2004, it is largely believed that the winner of the Republican primary will emerge victorious in the general election. foxnews.com
- — Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has spent the last two years making numerous controversial statements and taking stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing Gun Control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre , a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be liberal ex-marine Bill Winter . Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes which have alienated many on the left or center, when he said the United States should consider "taking out" Mecca if struck by another terrorist attack, and also Republican leadership by harshly criticizing George W. Bush 's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House . The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous, and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he (Tancredo) would run to succeed him.
- — Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected to a second term in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but won his first term by only 121 votes. His retirement to run for Governor Of Colorado makes this seat highly competitive. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell leads early polls for the Republicans, while former State Senator Ed Perlmutter leads former state Representative Peggy Lamm on the Democratic side. Dave Chandler , a Green, is also a candidate.
- — Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) won reelection by 54% to 46% in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London . The 2002 nominee, former state Representative Joe Courtney is planning another run.
- — Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport . Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell , the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election. However, no other Republican as yet has announced an intention to run.
- — Although Incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge in 2002 where she won with just 54%, she is still a Republican in an increasingly Democratic leaning district. John Kerry won the district in 2004 and Al Gore won it when it she represented the 6th District in 2000 . She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy .
- — Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, but not many expect this seat to be very competitive as it is a solidly Republican district located on Florida 's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis , has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor David Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. Busansky had a strong Q1 fundraising cycle and many are now predicting this race could be competitive.
- — Incumbent Jim Davis (D) is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains solidly Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg . Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller and Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor have announced that they will run for the seat.
- — Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) — is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson , a Democrat, in 2006, and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is solidly GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota and Manatee . Harris won reelection in 2004 with 55% of the vote, less than expected. State Representative Nancy Detert , banker George "Tramm" Hudson , and wealthy automobile dealer Vern Buchanan are running for the Republican nomination. Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings is running for the Democratic nomination.
- — Incumbent Clay Shaw (R) has been elected to twelve terms in the house and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970's. He is seeking reelection to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from state Senator Elaine Bloom , who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats - this time, state Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close, as Klein is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler . Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay 's ARMPAC . Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the Vote , John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush by a margin of 50% to 48% in the district. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable.
- — A Republican mid-decade Redistricting made this Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins , who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 he won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. This is one of the most competitive House races in the nation.
- — John Barrow of the United States House Of Representatives unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a solidly Democratic district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats.
- — In a surprise move, Rep. Ed Case announced in January of 2006 that he would challenge Daniel Akaka for the Democratic nomination for Senate. This opens up his Democratic-leaning seat, which includes Kauai , Maui , The Big Island , and part of Honolulu . The district has a strong Democratic tilt and features a Democratic primary including former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono , state Senator Matt Matsunaga , state Senator Ron Menor , state Senator Gary Hooser , state Senator Colleen Hanabusa , and state Representative Brian Schatz . Republicans running for the seat include state Senator Bob Hogue . Governor Linda Lingle has tried to bring Honolulu District Attorney Peter Carlisle into the race. Rep. Case won the 2004 election 63% to 37% in 2004.
- — Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for governor, and his seat is solidly Republican in most elections, though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992. The district contains more or less the north and western portions of the state, including all of the Panhandle and most of Boise . Former Congressional staffer Norm Semanko , state Controller Keith Johnson , state Representative Bill Sali , former state Senator Sheila Sorensen , Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez , and state Senator Skip Brandt are among Republicans competing for the seat. Attorney Larry Grant and North Idaho businessman Cecil Kelly are running on the Democratic side, with Grant the likely nominee. A new independent party called the United Party Www.unitedparty.net has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely . The Republican primary could become very bitter giving either the independents or the Democrats a shot at winning here.
- — Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Iraq war Veteran L. Tammy Duckworth , with substantial backing from the state and national Democratic establishment, won her party's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years.
- — Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County . Investment banker David McSweeney , who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority.
- — Although reliably Republican in past elections, this district, located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County , along Lake Michigan , voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004 which may make re-election a challenge for incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean 's win in the nearby 8th Congressional District, which is more Republican. The Democratic candidate is GE Commercial Finance Director of Marketing Dan Seals .
- — This western Illinois district, which includes Moline , was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee will be selected by county party organizations. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga , ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.
- — Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is vulnerable.
- — John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth . A recent poll has Ellsworth leading Hostettler 44% to 41%. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[http://www.dccc.org/stakeholder/archives/004010.html The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994.
- — Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004. Hill has annouced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He faces anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2nd primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time.
- — Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque and Clinton . State Representative Bill Dix , businessman Mike Whalen , and former state party chairman Brian Kennedy (politician) are running as Republicans, while attorney Bruce Braley and others are running as Democrats. Democrat Bill Gluba ran three separate times against Nussle, garnering larger percentages of the vote with each election. Nussle was reelected in 2004 with 55% of the vote but John Kerry won the district in the same year, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.
- — Incumbent Jim Leach (R) is one of the most liberal republicans in the house. His district in 2004 was won with a large margin of 12% by John Kerry , making it the largest margin won by Kerry in a district represented by a Republican. It is quite possible that Leach might face competition in the Republican Primary. He faces a challenge from David Loebsack .
- — Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close reelection in 2004 in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti plans to challenge him. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems, and his breaking a term-limit pledge he made when he first ran for office could factor into the race.
- — Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won a solid reelection in 2004, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and also voted for George W. Bush . Banker Chuck Ahner and state Representative Scott Schwab plan to challenge Moore in 2006, and with this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district, either Ahner or Schwab could pull off an upset.
- — Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state representative Mike Weaver , whose background in business and the military make it hard to portray him as a liberal.
- — Incumbent . See the article on the district for more on the race.
- — First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by Democratic ex-Rep. Ken Lucas , who held the seat previously to Davis. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district.
- — Strong victories in a 2003 special election to fill the Congressional seat of now-Governor Ernie Fletcher and in the 2004 election make Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) difficult to beat in a district known for supporting incumbency. Chandler could conceivably face difficulty, however, if speculation increases that he may pursue being Governor Of Kentucky in 2007. He is being challenged by marketing executive Elaine Carlson.
- — In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana , which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina , in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans . The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary.
- — Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John , the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles , who lost to John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita , and it is not known how many voters have temporarily – or permanently – moved elsewhere.
- — Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes . The Democratic field is already crowded, with a number of candidates, including lawyer and retired Army officer Mishonda Baldwin , former WMAR newscaster Andy Barth , former Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Peter Beilenson , businessman and former Maryland Democratic Party Treasurer Oz Bengur , State Senator Paula Hollinger , lobbyist Kevin O'Keefe , and Baltimore attorney John Sarbanes , son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes . No Republicans have announced their intention to run yet, so this seat is expected to remain Democratic. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel , Baltimore , and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis .
- — Incumbent freshman Joe Schwarz (R) won with 58% of the vote in 2004 , Schwarz has been attacked by the Club For Growth . The Club is backing his 2004 primary opponent Tim Walberg , Walberg has been attacking Schwarz for his moderate positions. The Democrats likely will have a shot in this district only if the moderate Schwarz loses the primary.
- — Incumbent of Troy, Michigan has also filed to run. Ashcraft's experience in automotive marketing has helped him to raise more money than other candidates in the race.
- — Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%, but things will likely be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley , who accused the bureau of mishandling pre- 9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes . After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Veteran state Senator Sharon Marko launched a campaign for the Democratic primary in February 2006 and was believed to be the party favorite. However, on March 29, Marko dropped out of the race.
- — Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic, and while the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis . {Link without Title}
- — Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton . The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud . Republican candidates for the House seat include state Representatives Jim Knoblach and Phil Krinkie State Senator Michele Bachmann and St. Cloud buisnessman Jay Esmay. Patty Wetterling , who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the Senate instead; then abruptly dropped out of the Senate race and launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. The other current Democratic candidate for MN-6 is Elwyn Tinklenberg , a former mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister. Tinklenberg is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee , which called this one of their best opportunities to pick up a House seat - although Tinklenberg, a moderate who served as Minnesota's transportation commissioner under Independent Jesse Ventura , notoriously makes little if any reference to the Democratic party in his campaign. Tinklenberg entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
- — Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (R) won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressmen Doug Bereuter whom was very critical of the Religious Right 's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to congress by margins of 60% - 65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A green party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Former Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January, 2006 to challenge Fortenberry. swingstateproject.com
- — Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons , is running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle . The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada , is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has ''never'' elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. On the Democratic side, Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, is running unopposed.
- — Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in 2004 the Democrats unexpectedly captured the Governor's Mansion and also managed to win the presidential race in this state. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52%-47% in the presidential election.
- — Frank LoBiondo (R) won with 65% of the vote last time, however, he had broken a pledge made back in 1994 that he would only serve 6 terms. Also, two of the Democratic pickups in the 2005 assembly race were in districts entirely contained within LoBiondo's district as well as Corzine's landslide victory in several major counties located entirely within the 2nd makes for a potentially competitive race. Viola Thomas-Hughes, a council member in Fairfield Township, Cumberland County, New Jersey , is running against him. Lobiondo has also received money from convicted lobbyists Jack Abramoff and Michael Scanlon .
- — Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in a normally Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garret is also facing a primary challenge against Michael Cino .
- — Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak . His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill" may become an issue in a district that voted for John Kerry in 2004. State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) will challenge Ferguson in 2006.
- — Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed narrow reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 10% margin. But in 2006 she will likely face Democrat Patricia Madrid , who is barred from seeking a third term as New Mexico 's Attorney General. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson. The district, centered in Albuquerque , is very competitive and was won by John Kerry .
- — Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island , where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly Moderate to Liberal . Nassau County Legislators David Mejias and David Denenberg are considering running, and they would be King's strongest challenge in years.
- — Incumbent Major Owens (D) is retiring after 12 terms. In 2004 Owens was reelected with a staggering 94% of the vote. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City in the center of Brooklyn . His son Chris Owens is seeking the seat, but so are state Assemblyman Nick Perry , state Senator Carl Andrews , and New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke and New York City Councilman David Yassky .
- — Since easily winning a special election in 1997, conservative Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn . But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an underfunded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who now are making this race a priority. New York City Councilman Bill De Blasio is thinking of running and he's well-liked in his Brooklyn-area council district. Helping Democrats is that the aborted Dubai port takeover was more unpopular here than perhaps anywhere else in the country. However, Staten Island dominates the district's population and is historically mistrustful of the rest of the city. This will help Fossella, who once represeted Staten Island on the city council, himself.
- — Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier , while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri , but both face primaries. {Link without Title}
- — Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign
- — In 2004, incumbent Brian Higgins (D) edged his Republican challenger, Erie County Controller Nancy Naples, by 51% to 49% to replace retiring pro-labor Republican Congressman Jack Quinn . Republicans look to take back what is a marginally Democratic district with the former Congressman's son and namesake, Jack Quinn III , who in 2004 was elected as a state Assemblyman. However, Quinn III doesn't have the ties to organized labor his father had, and therefore pulling off the upset in his Democratic district will be difficult. Additionally, Republican efforts to court former Buffalo Bills Quarterback Jim Kelly to run seem unlikely to succeed.
- — Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark . Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the netroots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive Weblog s such as dailykos and mydd. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign. There had been rumors that Kuhl is considering not running for re-election; however, as of early 2006, these have proven unsubstantiated.
- — Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman , was a production assistant on the TV show '' The West Wing '' with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte . Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA , which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay 's ARMPAC . Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's Political Action Committee , despite calls from Democrats to do so.
- — Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992. In 2002, he had his toughest race ever, winning by winning by 52% to 48% against then-state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh who is now an Associate Justice on the North Dakota Supreme Court. In 2004, he was reelected with little trouble. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtela, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection.
- — Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) was part of 1994's Republican Revolution , when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley , who challenged him in 2000. The first district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past.
- — This district, consisting of suburbs and rural areas east of Cincinnati has been estimated as the 57th safest Republican seat in the country. Yet in a Special Election In 2005 , Jean Schmidt (R) won by only 3.5% against Democrat Paul Hackett , an Iraq War veteran. The surprisingly narrow margin in a race many took for granted at the outset may signal a tough re-election campaign. Her remarks in the House suggesting that long-time Democratic hawk and Vietnam War veteran John Murtha is a coward revived her nickname of "Mean Jean" and will likely be used against her on the campaign trail. Support for a Democrat may continue to gain momentum in the continuing fallout from the Coingate scandal embroiling the Ohio Republican establishment. Rep. Schmidt was also criticized for implying on her website that she had been endorsed by Rep. Steve Chabot and Rep. Tom Tancredo. Both denied that they offer their endorsement. She is being challenged in the Republican primary by former U.S. Rep. Bob McEwen . However, McEwen is damaged by his involvement in the 1992 House Bank Scandal, where he had 166 overdrafts.
- — Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat represent the area since 1936. Republican state Senator Jim Jordan is the overwhelming favorite in both the primary and general election.
- — Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) is running for Governor Of Ohio . The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and will have to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee. enquirer.com
- — Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is challenging Republican Senator Mike DeWine . His district, in the Lorain / Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin , a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 32% of the vote. Democrats who have announced include former Congressman Tom Sawyer, former state Representative Betty Sutton, Elyria Mayor Bill Grace, former Cleveland School Board Member Gary Kucinich, Richfield Mayor Michael Lyons, and wealthy public relations consultant Capri Cafaro . Normally, Democrats would have little trouble holding this district. But Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold and the fact that none of the Democrats running have generated enthusiasm gives Republicans a glimmer of hope.
- — This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy , possibly her strongest opponent to date.
- — Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won this district since 1994, he has a less than stellar ethics record, having admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff 's Scandal and has been identified as the unnamed represenitive implicated by Abramoff's Plea Bargain . He faces a strong challenger in Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer , a former state Representative and Vietnam War veteran. Zack Space , a popular figure from Dover is also running for the Democratic nomination. Located in southeastern Ohio and including Steubenville and Zanesville , this district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
- — Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia . Lois Murphy , who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay 's ARMPAC , which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the disputed money or donating it to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if DeLay is convicted.
- — Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak (D). Weldon caused controversy while campaigning when he questioned Sestak's dedication to living in the district because his family lives in the Washington suburbs and he did not send his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital for clinical treatment. Sestak denounced Weldon for his statement in light of the fact that his four-year-old daughter is suffering from a Malignant brain Tumor . {Link without Title}
- — Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County , is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War veteran (Member of the 82nd Airborne) Patrick Murphy has announced his candidacy and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than his 2004 counterpart, Ginny Schrader . Former Bucks County Commissioner Andrew Warren is also running.
- — Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in an affair and physical abuse scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a $5.5 million lawsuit. On November 8 , 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. Democrat Chris Carney is currently the first congressional opponent he has faced in six years.
- — Paul Kanjorski (D) ran unopposed in 2004, but in 2002 faced his toughest race yet. Republicans could pose a serious challenge to this seat as John Kerry only won his traditionally Democratic district with 52% of the vote. The district is based in Scranton , Wilkes-Barre , and Hazelton .
- — Allyson Schwartz (D) is a freshman Congressman, and won her first election with 56% of the vote. Former Apprentice contestant Raj Bhakta will be her opponent, adding a hint of celebrity to the race. However, Schwartz's fundraising prowess — she raised more money in the 2004 cycle than all but four candidates, including incumbents — may ward off serious opposition. Bhakta's aspirations may be damaged by his admitting to having been arrested twice for drunk driving. {Link without Title}
- — John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman .
- — Stephanie Herseth (D) was narrowly elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and more convincingly in the 2004 general election. However, South Dakota 's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle does not make the seat a safe one. Herseth is very popular, with approval ratings in the 70's.
- — Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist . Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis .
- — Incumbent Ted Poe (R) unseated Democrat Nick Lampson after heavy redistricting changed the political landscape, allowing him to win with 55% of the vote. His opponent in November will be Democrat Gary Binderim who is already making an issue of Poe's party-line votes, which have been calculated to have lined up with Republican leadership 96% of the time, as well as Poe's refusal to return thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay 's ARMPAC . This newly drawn district is considered competitive.
- — Incumbent Michael McCaul (R), who won easily last time due to no Democratic opposition (his opponent, a Libertarian, won 15% of the vote), will face a much tougher challenger in that of 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate, Michael Badnarik , and the recent Democratic strategy of challenging all seats means that the Democrats may run a candidate here as well, drawing votes from both McCaul and Badnarik. Some of the Democratic candidates for the nomination include former government engineer and Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum , former newspaperman and real estate agent Sid Smith, poet and business owner Paul Foreman and former emergency room nurse Pat Mynatt. The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast Texas from Austin to Harris County outside Houston .
- — Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas Redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district dramatically and made it more Republican, he also pulled off the victory despite the fact Bush won the district by a whopping 40%. His district includes Waco and Crawford , the location of George W. Bush 's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth , was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. This year, he is being challenged by Van Taylor , an attorney and Iraq War veteran from a locally prominent family.
- — Retiring Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) has been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55-41 margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. On September 28 , 2005 , DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas . As a result, he was forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader . DeLay emerged victorious from the Republican primary with a strong showing of around 65%. DeLay's district will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson , a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting. Lampson's former district contained much of the eastern area of DeLay's present district. In addition, former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman intends to run as an independent, which could siphon off support from the Republican Candidate. A poll conducted by the Houston Chronicle in January of 2006 had Lampson leading DeLay 30% to 22%, with 11% of voters supporting Independent Candidate Stockman. In the event of a three-way race, only a plurality is required to win the seat. In announcing his plans not to seek reelection, Delay noted his poor poll showing and the constant criticisms he was expecting. DeLay officially withdrew from the race on Tuesday, April 4th. "Those polls showed him beating Democrat Nick Lampson in the general election but in a race that would be too close for comfort, DeLay said." [http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-04-04T024928Z_01_N03343669_RTRUKOC_0_US-DELAY.xml . The Republican nominee will be decided at some point this year.
- — Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won a close reelection in 2004, his district includes much of heavily Republican southern Utah , but also heavily Democratic Salt Lake City , and he is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) is rumored to be planning a run. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70's. Key to note is that Democrat Jim Matheson won reelection in a vote that gave George W. Bush 66% of the vote and John Kerry less than 33%. Matheson continues to defy the odds, using his name and his moderate stances to win in a district that is overwhelmingly conservative.
- — In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-state Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55% to 45% against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe . Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam has filed papers to run. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and could quickly put this seat into play.
- — This district, at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area, was considered Republican-leaning before 2004, and the popular former King County Sheriff was expected to win comfortably. Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) won it 52% to 46% in 2004. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) is challenging him in 2006.
- — This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election 56% to 44%, a less than spectacular margin for the 2004 race, against state Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz , and the state of Wisconsin favored John Kerry for president. The western edge of the District is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities , Minnesota area; fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. So far, the only declared Republican candidate is Paul Nelson , a real estate agent (like Schultz) and former Marine .
- — Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin , is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton . State Assembly Speaker John Gard and state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick are seeking the seat as Republicans; businessman Jamie Wall , former De Pere Mayor & Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum , and physician Steve Kagen are seeking the seat as Democrats. Nussbaum won name I.D. in 2002 as the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor, while Kagen and Wall have personal wealth to fall back on. Both parties have pitfalls in this election: GOP frontrunner Gard is not popular, while the Democratic primary is becoming increasingly negative.
- — Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election . She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner.
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