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Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms, and the term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006. The 2006 House Election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state Governors . MAJOR PARTIES The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans , who have been in the majority since 2003 , 44 Democrats , and 1 independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont ). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans. To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need either a net gain of 6 seats (if independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jim Jeffords ' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House ), or a net gain of 7 seats (if Sanders loses to a Republican). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney ) breaks all tie votes in his role as President Of The Senate . To gain a "working majority" of 60 members – the number of votes required to break a Filibuster – Republicans would need a net gain of 5 seats. However, more conservative Democrats may also contribute to the "working majority", and more liberal Republicans may go against it. RACES TO WATCH It is not clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with other political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired or has served only one term. Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above. Retiring Senators Mark Dayton (D) of Minnesota ''Main article : Minnesota United States Senate Election, 2006 '' On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Dayton was never all that popular in Minnesota or well-regarded in the Senate, so his fellow Democrats were relieved by his retirement. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy , the presumed GOP nominee, secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and will not face any serious challengers. Kennedy has benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to fund raise for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005. In spite of these advantages, polls show Kennedy trailing his Democratic opponents, albeit by narrow margins. There are two candidates seeking the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nomination. The current DFL front runner is Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar . Ford Bell , a Veterinarian , Philanthropist , and heir to a founder of General Mills , is also running but is significantly behind Klobuchar in polling and fundraising. Bell will rely only on contributions to fund his campaigns and not his personal wealth. Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi , who narrowly lost to Dayton in the 2000 DFL primary, announced on Februrary 7, 2006 that he would not seek the seat. Bill Frist (R) of Tennessee ''Main article : Tennessee United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee , the current Majority Leader , has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have Presidential aspirations for 2008 . Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the statewide offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and sends more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans. The Democratic nominee will be Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. . Republican candidates include former U.S. Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary , along with former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker . Hilleary currently has a slim lead over Bryant and an slightly larger lead over Corker. While he leads for the Democrat nomination, Ford trails all Republican candidates by at least a few points as of a March 2006 poll. Jim Jeffords (I) of Vermont ''Main article : Vermont United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 Election . On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party is unlikely to support any party candidate because several leading members have already endorsed independent and self-described "democratic socialist" Representative Bernie Sanders . A November 2005 poll conducted for and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie both considered running but ultimately opted out. Sanders, who already represents the entire state in his House seat (there is only one Congressional district in the state), is widely expected to win by a significant margin, given the lack of any major Republican opponent. Paul Sarbanes (D) of Maryland ''Main article : Maryland U.S. Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Michael Steele , a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and is currently the only major contender for the Republican nomination. Polls show Steele running competitvely agaist all the Democrats running. Democrats have a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers. But Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with his fellow blacks puts this race in doubt. Both parties suffered setbacks in the campaign. Two staffers from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were disovered to have illegally obtained Steele's credit report. However, Steele compared stem cell research to the Holocaust in the fall of 2005, and his support hs since fallen by ten points and he now trails both Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume in the polls. Notable Democratic incumbent races Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut ''Main article : Connecticut U.S. Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut was thought to be a shoo-in. He remains a solid favorite, but his reelection prospects have been complicated by political cross-currents. A Democrat who is mostly liberal on domestic policy, has drawn fire from liberals within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Liberal activists are supporting Ned Lamont against him in an August primary. Also, former Governor Lowell Weicker has said he might run in the general as an Independent. Lieberman has also hinted that if denied renomination he might run as an independent. Recently, Republican ex-state Representative Alan Schlesinger announced his candidacy. Schlesinger, a former Mayor of Derby, has a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but has never run in a large constituancy. Should Lamont win the primary or Weicker run, Republicans will look at this race more closely. Maria Cantwell of Washington ''Main article : Washington United States Senate Election, 2006 '' In 2000, wealthy internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell unseated then-Senator Slade Gorton by some 2,200 votes, the smallest margin in state history, after spending a portion of her personal fortune. She has drawn fire from progressives in Washington for some of her votes, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution , for the confirmation of Secretary Of State Condoleezza Rice , and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito . Mark Wilson has filed as a primary challenger because of these votes. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on redeploying American armed forces from Iraq. Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the only announced GOP candidate. Incidentally, McGavick was once Gorton's Chief of Staff and is believed to have similar moderate-to-conservative politics. On March 9, 2006, Aaron Dixon , former captain of the Seattle chapter of the Black Panther Party announced his intention to seek the Green Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, challenging Senator Cantwell on her continued support for the U.S. Presence In Iraq and the USA PATRIOT Act . The Libertarian Party is expected to field a candidate as well. Polls show McGavick slowly gaining ground but Cantwell still leading. Bill Nelson of Florida ''Main article : Florida United States Senate Election, 2006 '' As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. U.S. Representative Katherine Harris , who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election, is the clear favorite to win the Republican primary. So far, potential candidates floated to challenge her in the primary decided against running, due to Harris's overwhelming name I.D. among Republican voters. Nelson is not particularly popular and has made little impression since his election to the Senate. However, Harris's name I.D. among the populace at large is overwhelmingly negative and her campaign has been badly damaged by a string of gaffes and mistakes. Late March 2006 polls show Nelson leading Harris by margins of 16 to 28 points. Republicans aren't optimistic about winning this race with Harris as the nominee and even Democrats privately admit being amazed at Harris's poor showing on the campaign trail. Two of the most recent polls have shown Nelson defeating Harris by a margin of around 2-to-1. The most recent Rasmussen poll gives Nelson a lead of 57% to 27%. Despite Republican criticism of Harris' refusal to drop out of the race, the only other Republicans measured up against Nelson in the polls trail as well, albeit by smaller margins. Recently, Republicans have been again trying to recruit state House Speaker Allan Bense into the race. Robert Menendez of New Jersey ''Main article : New Jersey United States Senate Election, 2006 '' (the son of the former Governor Of New Jersey and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean ) announced on March 25 , 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees have problems within their own parties. Menendez has alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean is unpopular with party conservatives who consider him to be too liberal. Menendez's 36% approval rating may also be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, although his disapproval is also relatively small. {Link without Title} Although incumbents with under 50% ratings in polls are generally considered vulnerable, it should be noted that this rule probably doesn't apply to Menendez, since he can't really be considered a true incumbent, as he was appointed just recently and is not well known state-wide. A recent poll by Rutgers also showed that many believed Tom Kean Jr. was his father running for senate. Mendendez and Kean continue to exchange leads in recent polls. Ben Nelson of Nebraska ''Main article : Nebraska United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Ben Nelson , first elected to the Senate in 2000, will be the incumbent in a race where his is the favorite against a Republican challenger. His potential Republican challenger will be the winner of a three-way primary. His former opponent, Don Stenberg is again running for the seat which he narrowly lost in 2000. Also, multimillionaire former Ameritrade COO, Pete Ricketts is running in the Republican primary. Senator Nelson is the favorite in this race. He has a following going back to his days as Governor during the 1990's and he has compiled the most conservative record of any Democratic U.S. Senator. However, Nebraska's voters tilt heavily toward the GOP, so much so that state has not supported a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1964. As of April 2006, Nelson holds the highest approval rating of all 100 U.S. senators, at 73%. {Link without Title} Debbie Stabenow of Michigan ''Main article : Michigan United States Senate Election, 2006 '' In 2000, then-Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow unseated Spencer Abraham by a 50% to 48% margin after trailing during much of the campaign. This year, she is thought to be secure, with George W. Bush 's popularity falling, and well-known Republicans backing away from running. Her two opponents were former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler and former think tank director Jerry Zandstra . Both Butler and Zandstra are pastors. Initially, Republicans were cautiously optimistic about Butler's potential, but his campaign has never gotten off the ground, and neither has Zandstra's. A few months ago, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard , a former state legislator, suddenly entered the race after initially backing out. Although Bouchard has begun to gain in the polls, Stabenow still leads by a comfortable margin. In contrast, Butler and Zandstra continue to languish. Stabenow reamains the solid favorite. But if Bouchard wins the nomination, then the race could become competitive. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin ''Main article : Wisconsin U.S. Senate Election, 2006 '' One of the wealthiest members of the U.S. Senate, the low-key, liberal Herb Kohl was thought to be secure. But recently, former Governor Tommy Thompson has implied that he may challenge Kohl this year, though he could also run for Governor again. A respected former U.S. Secretary of Health & Human Services, Thompson is well-liked in Wisconsin and was regarded as having been one of its most accomplished Governors. He will make his intentions known in late May of 2006. An April 12 poll by Strategic Vision shows Thompson leading Kohl in a hypothetical race by a 45% to 40% margin, though an April 26 Rasmussen poll shows Kohl leading 59% to 32% over Thompson, and Republicans fervently want Thompson to run. Absent a Thompson candidacy, Kohl will be reelected without incident. Notable Republican incumbent races John Ensign of Nevada ''Main article : Nevada U.S. Senate Election, 2006 '' John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election and was initially thought to be popular and politically secure. However, a recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. In addition, his opponent, Jack Carter has the potential to benefit from his father, former President Jimmy Carter 's name and fund-raising contacts. Although the exit of Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman from the Democratic primary removes a potentially powerful opponent for Ensign, this race still has the potential to be competitive. George Allen of Virginia ''Main article : Virginia United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator George Allen of Virginia is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would almost certainly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. Virginia businessman Harris Miller (D) and former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb are currently seeking the Democratic nomination. Gail Parker , a retired USAF Major and Pentagon budget analyst, has announced her intention to run as the Green Party candidate. Allen is popular and favored to win, but not assured of reelection. Conrad Burns of Montana ''Main article : Montana United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff Scandal , could make this a competitive race. State Auditor John Morrison has filed papers to run for the Democratic nomination, and state Senate President Jon Tester has announced his candidacy. On March 22, 2006, one day before the filing deadline, Republican state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan announced that he would challenge Burns in the June 6, 2006 primary, claiming that Burns will be defeated if he's the nominee. Keenan has been in the state legislature since 1994 and served on the Big Fork School Board before that. Burns has been damaged by his prominent role in the Abramoff scandal, and there have been some rumors that he will be indicted. However, Morrison was embarrassed when it was revealed that in 1998, he hired an outside attorney to investigate a man accused of securities fraud because his extramarital affair with the suspect's fiance created a potential conflict of interest. Although Morrison broke no laws, the incident may damage his ability to attack Burns' ethics. An April 13, 2006 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Morrison leading Burns by 47% to 45%, while Burns leads Tester by 47% to 44%. In both cases, Burns has gained slightly. However, the same poll shows Morrison leading Keenan by 44% to 38% and Tester leading Keenan by 42% to 38%, even though Keenan is far less known and has not done any advertising. Keenan's supporters claim this shows strength because he has a lot of room for growth while Burns is already widely known. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island ''Main article : Rhode Island United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island , the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from conservative Cranston mayor Steve Laffey . Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and former businessman Carl Sheeler . Secretary of State Matt Brown had been in the race and was the slight frontrunner for a while, but his credibility was lost due in part to a campaign finance scandal and reporting only $35,000 to the FEC available for his primary. He dropped out of the race recently. Sheeler, a Marine vet combat and staff officer of Desert Storm, while still the party's progressive party outsider and dark horse, has potential appeal to those favoring anti-war postures as well as some middle class Catholics due to his own modest background and common sense plain spoken approach. Although Laffey is running as a conservative, he has come under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It is widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to independent voters. Chafee, however, may be badly damaged by a contentious primary that could potentially alienate Republican voters and give the Democratic nominee an advantage. Mike DeWine of Ohio ''Main article : Ohio United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine could also face primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce , who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang Of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War Veteran Paul Hackett , who Narrowly Lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2, 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14, 2006. A March 2006 Rasmussen poll shows DeWine slightly ahead of Brown 45% to 42% while the most recent Mason Dixon poll shows DeWine pulling ahead by 47% to 36%, with a larger undecided pool. Jon Kyl of Arizona ''Main article : Arizona United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14, 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano Governor. A recent Arizona State University/KAET-TV poll from April 27, 2006 shows Kyl leading Pederson 42% to 31%. {Link without Title} Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania ''Main article : Pennsylvania United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator , a pro-life Democrat. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. , Pennsylvania's state treasurer, college professor Chuck Pennacchio and Alan Sandals are competing in the Democratic primary. Polls had shown Casey leading by a 15 to 20 points, but the margin has narrowed in recent months, especially when voters are informed of Casey's pro-life views. Jim Talent of Missouri ''Main article : Missouri United States Senate Election, 2006 '' Senator Jim Talent of Missouri , who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in Claire McCaskill , Missouri's state auditor and 2004 Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Missouri is considered a "swing" state, but McCaskill carries significant political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a failed gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. Polls show a very close race with polls repeatedly showing leads within the margin of error. COMPLETE LIST OF SENATE CONTESTS IN 2006 OPINION POLLS Control of both the House and the Senate will be determined by the relatively small number of competitive seats - usually approximately a dozen in the House and less than a half dozen in the Senate. It is the outcome of individual elections which determines partisan control of both bodies and nationwide polls have little effect on such a small subset of individual state elections. Current "generic ballot" House of Representatives poll numbers can be found at PollingReport.com . SEE ALSO |
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