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The Democratic Party had run the House for forty years and had been plagued by a series of scandals. The Republican Party , united behind Newt Gingrich 's Contract With America , which promised floor votes on various popular and institutional reforms, was able to capitalize on the perception that the House leadership was corrupt, as well as the dissatisfaction of conservative voters with President Clinton's actions (including a failed attempt at Universal Health Care ). In a historic election, Democrat and House Speaker Tom Foley ( D - Washington ) was defeated for re-election in his district, becoming the first Speaker of the House to fail to win re-election since the era of the American Civil War . Minority Whip Newt Gingrich ( R - Georgia ), re-elected in the Republican landslide, became Speaker (previous Minority Leader Robert H. Michel having retired). Former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt ( D - Missouri ) became minority leader. The new Republican leadership in the House and Senate fulfilled its promise to bring a dozen legislative proposals to a vote in their first 100 days. Other major upsets included the defeat of powerful long-serving Representatives such as Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D- Illinois ) and Judiciary Chairman Jack Brooks (D- Texas ). In all, 34 incumbents (all Democrats) were defeated, though several of them (like David Price of North Carolina , Ted Strickland of Ohio , and Jay Inslee of Washington ) regained seats in later elections; Maria Cantwell of Washington is notable for winning a U.S. Senate race in 2000. EXPLANATIONS FOR VOTER BEHAVIOR Many explanations depend on turnout. One says Democrats failed to mobilize their constituencies. Turnout was very low --27%--among low income voters (under $15,000 in family income). However that can not have played a great role: the Democrats received 46.6% of the House vote, trailing the Republican candidates by more than 4.7 million votes. If turnout among the poor had been as high as the average, the Democrats would have received only 47.1 percent of the vote, trailing the Republicans by 4.1 million votes. Another says that Democrats tended more to stay at home, while the GOP voters were energized. But NES polls show that nonvoters only leaned Democratic. Teixeira (1996) argues that downscale voters, particularly white downscale voters, deserted the Democrats and caused their defeat. By education: Democratic support held the sam among the college educated but fell 10-11 points among the less educated, compared to 1992. Democratic support declined 20 points (to 37% from 57%) among white men with a high school education and 15 points (31% from 46%) among white men with some college education. Perot's 1992 voters--especially those who never attended college--shifted heavily to the GOP. Was ideology a factor? Steeper (1995) argues that the force behind the pro-GOP surge was the increased conservative ideology of voters. There was an increase in the proportion of self-identified conservatives (to 37% from 30%) and an increase in the Republican House vote among these conservatives (to 81% from 72%). VOTING PATTERNS GOP Gains GOP gains 1992-94
:Source: Data from exit-poll surveys by Voter Research and Surveys and Mitofsky International published in the ''New York Times'', 13 November 1994 p. 24 Religious Right Evangelicals were an important group within the electorate and a significant voting bloc in the Republican party. The national exit poll by Mitofsky International showed 27% of all voters identified themselves as a born-again or evangelical Christians, up from 18% in 1988 and 24% in 1992. Republican House candidates outpolled Democrats among white evangelicals by a massive 52 points, 76% to 24%. 118 According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 [''CQ Weekly Report'', November 19, 1994, p3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992 (''Hotline'', November 12, 1994).
OVERALL RESULTS 34 incumbent Democrats were defeated in 1994, with Democrats from Washington losing the most seats (5): - Karan English (Arizona 6, elected in 1992) - Dan Hamburg (California 1, elected in 1992) - Richard Lehman (California 19, elected in 1982) - Lynn Schenk (California 49, elected in 1992) - George "Buddy" Darden (Georgia 7, elected in 1982) - Don Johnson (Georgia 10, elected in 1992) - Larry LaRocco (Idaho 1, elected in 1990) - Dan Rostenkowski (Illinois 5, elected in 1958) - this was a major upset as Rostenkowski was not only a veteran and chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, but his Chicago district was heavily Democratic, though it didn't help that he was a felon. - Jill Long (Indiana 4, elected in 1988) - Frank McCloskey (Indiana 8, elected in 1982) - Neal Smith (Iowa 4, elected in 1958) - also a major upset due to Smith's seniority - Dan Glickman (Kansas 4, elected in 1976) - Thomas Barlow (Kentucky 1, elected in 1992) - Peter Hoagland (Nebraska 2, elected in 1988) - James Bilbray (Nevada 1, elected in 1986) - Dick Swett (New Hampshire 2, elected in 1990) - Herb Klein (New Jersey 8, elected in 1992) - George Hochbrueckner (New York 1, elected in 1986) - Martin Lancaster (North Carolina 3, elected in 1986) - David Price (North Carolina 4, elected in 1986) - David Mann (Ohio 1, elected in 1992) - Ted Strickland (Ohio 6, elected in 1992) - Eric Fingerhut (Ohio 19, elected in 1992) - Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (Pennsylvania 13, elected in 1992) - Jack Brooks (Texas 9, elected in 1952) - a huge upset due to Brooks' seniority and chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee - Bill Sarpalius (Texas 13, elected in 1988) - Karen Shepherd (Utah 2, elected in 1992) - Leslie Byrne (Virginia 11, elected in 1992) - Maria Cantwell (Washington 1, elected in 1992) - Jolene Unsoeld (Washington 3, elected in 1988) - Jay Inslee (Washington 4, elected in 1992) - Tom Foley (Washington 5, elected in 1964) - one of the the most historic defeats in congressional history; Foley had not only represented the Spokane area for thirty years, but was Speaker of the House, one of the most powerful men in D.C., so his defeat was symbolic of the entire 1994 election - Mike Kreidler (Washington 9, elected in 1992) - Peter Barca (Wisconsin 1, elected in 1993) - Barca's tight win in a 1993 special election in this "safely Democratic" district was a sign of things to come REFERENCES
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