| Stephen D. Unwin |
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In his book, Unwin argues that a mathematical equation developed by Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the Probability that God exists. Unwin employs Bayesian probabilities, a statistical method devised by Reverend Thomas Bayes. He begins with a 50 percent probability that God exists (arguing that 50–50 represents "maximum ignorance"), then applies a modified Bayesian theorem: : In this model, the probability of God's existence after the evidence is considered is a function of the probability before times D ("Divine Indicator Scale"): 10 indicates the evidence is 10 times as likely to be produced if God exists, 2 is two times as likely if God exists, 1 is neutral, 0.5 is moderately more likely if God does not exist, and 0.1 is much more likely if God does not exist. Unwin offers the following figures for six lines of evidence: recognition of goodness (D = 10), existence of moral evil (D = 0.5), existence of natural evil (D = 0.1), intranatural miracles (prayers) (D = 2), extranatural miracles (resurrection) (D = 1), and religious experiences (D = 2). Plugging these figures into the above formula (in sequence, where the Pafter figure for the first computation is used for the Pbefore figure in the second computation, and so on for all six Ds), Unwin concludes: "The probability that God exists is 67%." But then he admits freely that it is just a game played with numbers: "This number has a subjective element since it reflects my assessment of the evidence." Unwin's comment refers to his estimates of the various "D" values used to obtain his estimate, whose values would be disputed by many. A reviewer on Amazon.com 's "customer reviews section", using the pseudonym "DancesWithAnxiety", was one of a number of reviewers there to critique the book on this point:
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