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Spanish General Election, 2004




Legislative elections were held in Spain on March 14 , 2004 . At stake were all 350 seats in the lower house of the Cortes Generales , the Congress Of Deputies , and 208 seats in upper house, the Senate . The governing People's Party (PP) was led into the campaign by Mariano Rajoy , successor to outgoing Prime Minister José María Aznar . In a result which defied most predictions, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), led by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero , won a plurality of seats in Congress of Deputies, and was able to form a government with the support of minor parties. The socialists received more votes than expected probably as a result of the government's handling of the 11 March 2004 Madrid Train Bombings . In the early moments following the attacks, the national government maintained the theory of the ETA responsibility, when evidence pointed to the possibility that an Islamic extremist group was behind the massacre the ETA theory lost weight. If the latter were the case, the attack could have been perceived by the electorate to be a consequence of the Spanish government's support of the invasion of Iraq.

The day after the election, Zapatero announced his intention to form a minority PSOE government, without a coalition, saying in a radio interview: "the implicit mandate of the people is for us to form a minority government negotiating accords on each issue with other parliamentary groups". Two minor left-wing parties, Republican Left Of Catalonia and United Left , immediately announced their intention to support Zapatero's government.


RESULTS


In the Congress of Deputies, the PP vote fell by 6.9 percent, and the party lost 39 seats. The PSOE vote rose by 8.5 percent, bringing a gain of 35 seats. On the left, the United Left (a coalition led by the Communist Party Of Spain ), lost four of its nine seats, but the leftwing Catalan party Republican Left Of Catalonia gained seven seats. The conservative Catalan nationalist party, Convergence And Unity , which in the recent past has been allied with the PP, lost five of its 15 seats.

The PSOE's victory was celebrated in the street outside the party's headquarters in Calle Ferraz with shouts of "No war!" and "How happy we are, to live without Aznar", but also "Zapatero, don't fail us!". Consistent with the PSOE's long-standing opposition to the Iraq war, Rodríguez Zapatero had promised during the election campaign to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq by June. Zapatero withdrew the troops shortly after taking office, a decision he justified on his belief that the United Nations was not likely to assume responsibility for Iraq after the U.S.-led occupation formally ended at the end of June, which was his criterion for allowing troops to stay. Subsequent events, indeed, bore out his prediction.

A feature of the result was the increased representation for the Republican Left Of Catalonia , a minor left-wing party which has formed a coalition government with the PSOE in Catalonia . The Republican Left's leader, Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira , had recently held meetings with the Basque separatist group ETA in France , a revelation which had forced his exit from the recently formed Catalan regional government and had become a campaign issue in the general election.

More detailed table of share of votes:





































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Partido Socialista Obrero Español
PSOE
11026163
43.27 164
Partido Popular
PP
9763144
38.31 148
Izquierda Unida-Los Verdes
IU-LV
1359190
5.33 5
Convergència I Unió
CiU
835471
3.28 10
Esquerra Republicana De Catalunya
ERC
652196
2.56 8
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco
EAJ-PNV
420980
1.65 7
Coalición Canaria
CC
235221
0.92 3
Bloque Nacionalista Galego
BNG
208688
0.82 2
Partido Andalucista
PA
181868
0.71
Chunta Aragonesista
CHA
94252
0.37 1
Eusko Alkartasuna
EA
80905
0.32 1
Nafarroa Bai
Na-Bai
61045
0.24 1
Bloc Nacionalista Valencià-Esquerra Verda
BLOC-EV
40759
0.16
Ciudadanos En Blanco
CENB
40208
0.16
Aralar - Zutik
ARALAR-ZUTIK
38560
0.15
Los Verdes-Ecopacifistas
LV-E
37499
0.15
Partido Aragonés
PAR
36540
0.14
Centro Democrático Y Social
CDS
34101
0.13
Els Verds-L'Alternativa Ecologista
EV-AE
30528
0.12
Partido Socialista De Andalucía
PSA
24127
0.09
Partido Humanista
PH
21758
0.09
Izquierda Republicana
IR
16993
0.07
Partido Cannabis Por La Legalización Y Normalización
PCANNABIS
16918
0.07
Partido Familia Y Vida
PFyV
16699
0.07
Democracia Nacional
DN
15180
0.06
Unión Del Pueblo Leonés
UPL
14160
0.06
Partido Comunista De Los Pueblos De España
PCPE
12979
0.05
Los Verdes-Grupo Verde
LV-GV
12749
0.05
Falange Española De Las JONS
FE de las JONS
12266
0.05
Unió Mallorquina
UM
10558
0.04
La Falange
FE
10311
0.04
Tierra Comunera-Partido Nacionalista Castellano
TC-PNC
8866
0.03
Partido Obrero Socialista Internacionalista
POSI
8003
0.03
Movimiento Social Republicano
MSR
6768
0.03
Partido Demócrata Español
PADE
5677
0.02
Convergencia De Demócratas De Navarra
CDN
5573
0.02
Falange Auténtica
FA
4589
0.02
Partiu Asturianista
PAS
4292
0.02
España 2000
ESPAÑA 2000
4231
0.02
Partido Nacionalista Canario
PNC
4092
0.02
Extremadura Unida
EU
3916
0.02
Partido De Los Autónomos Y Profesionales
AUTONOMO
3124
0.01
Iniciativa Por El Desarrollo De Soria
IDES
2934
0.01
Asamblea De Andalucía
A
2930
0.01
Alternativa Popular Canaria
APCa
2715
0.01
Grupo Verde Europeo
GVE
2662
0.01
Candidatura Independiente-El Partido De Castilla Y León
CI
2421
0.01
Escons Insubmisos-Alternativa Dels Demòcrates Descontents
Ei-ADD
2332
0.01
Partido Del Karma Democrático
PKD
2300
0.01
Frente Popular Galega
FPG
2257
0.01
Coalición Galega
CG
2235
0.01
Alianza Para El Desarrollo Y La Naturaleza
ADN
2215
0.01
Partido De Los Trabajadores En Precario
PTPRE
2115
0.01
Identidad Reino De Valencia
IRV
2111
0.01
Partido De Los Autónomos Jubilados Y Viudas
PAE
2082
0.01
Andecha Astur
AA
1970
0.01
Unión Del Pueblo Salmantino
UPSa
1871
0.01
Els Verds-Alternativa Verda
EV-AV
1836
0.01
Partido Carlista
PC
1813
0.01
Partido Del Mutuo Apoyo Romántico
PMAR
1561
0.01
Conceju Nacionaliegu Cántabru
CNC
1431
0.01
Salamaca. Zamora. León PREPAL
PREPAL
1322
0.01
Otra Democracia Es Posible
ODEP
1302
0.01
Agrupación Social Independiente
ASI
1237
0.00
Partit Socialdemocrata Independent De La Comunitat Valenciana
PSICV
1096
0.00
Partido Republicano Federal
PRF
1051
0.00
Alternativa Por Gran Canaria
AxGC
957
0.00
Alianza Por La Unidad Nacional
AUN
923
0.00
Asamblea De Izquierdas-Iniciativa Por Andalucía
A-IZ
901
0.00
Partido Positivista Cristiano
PPCr
892
0.00
Izquierda Asturiana
IAS
854
0.00
Partido Socialista Del Pueblo De Ceuta
PSPC
807
0.00
Unión Centrista Liberal
UCL
798
0.00
Partido Nacionalista Caló
PNCA
757
0.00
Zamora Unida
ZU
754
0.00
Unió Centristes De Menorca
UCM
751
0.00
Lucha Internacionalista
LI-LIT-CI
668
0.00
Frente Democrático Español
FDE
619
0.00
Unidad Castellana
Ud Ca
601
0.00
Partido Social-demócrata Andaluz
PSDA
583
0.00
Alternativa Maga Nacionalista
AMAGA
468
0.00
Unión Del Pueblo Balear
UPB
411
0.00
Estado Nacional Europeo
N
410
0.00
Coalició Treballadors Per La Democràcia
TD
407
0.00
Partido Nacional De Los Trabajadores
PNT
379
0.00
Partido De La Gente
LG
378
0.00
Partido Regionalista De Guadalajara
PRGU
330
0.00
Unión Nacional
UN
318
0.00
Convergencia Ciudadana Del Sureste
CCSE
308
0.00
Partido Demócrata Nacional De España
PDN
232
0.00
Grupo Político Honradez Absoluta Española
GPHAE
52
0.00



Development of voteshares and seats




Source: Spanish Interior Ministry
  • The Gallagher/Lijphart Index of disproportionality for the election is 5.20

  • The effective number of elective parties is 3.04

  • The effective number of parliamentary parties is 2.49



Senate


In the Senate the PP won 102 seats to the PSOE's 81, a better result than in the lower house. Even so, this was a 28-seat gain for the PSOE and a 25-seat loss for the PP. In Catalonia, a combined Socialist-Republican left ticket won 12 Senate seats, and the Basque Nationalists won six.

Senate seats by Autonomous Community and Constituency








The PSOE and its Catalan affiliate the PSC-ERC thus has 93 seats to the PP's 102. The rest of the nationalist parties, Catalan CiU, Basque EAJ-PNV, and Canary Islands CC are all conservative parties. Even if the six Basque Nationalists (EAJ-PNV), which are strongly at odds with the PP, vote with the left, the PP will still outvote them. The PSOE will thus need to gain the support of the Catalan and Canary Islands regionalists, the CiU and CC, to carry legislation in the Senate. Both parties have supported PSOE and PP governments in 1990-2000, when the largest party did not enjoy an absolute majority in the Congress.

It is possible that voters swung to the PSOE in the vote for the Congress of Deputies, which determines the government, but stuck with the PP in the voting for the Senate, thus placing a brake on a future socialist government. However, a swing in votes that fails to change who leads in a district has a larger effect in the Congress, with large numbers of seats per constituency allocated proportionally, that in the Senate, where constituencies elect up to four representatives and voters cast votes for up to three people (usually all from the same party).


ELECTORAL SYSTEM

This was the eighth general election since the restoration of democratic government in 1978 , or the ninth if the elections to a constitutional assembly in 1977 are included. Each of Spain's Autonomous Communities elects a number of Deputies and Senators in rough proportion to its population. The smaller autonomous communities (such as La Rioja ) form a single electoral district (a circumscription). The larger autonomous communities (such as Catalonia ) are divided into several circumscriptions.

All 350 deputies are elected on party lists, by roughly Proportional Representation in each electoral district. The method used to allocate the seats is the D'Hondt Method , which favours larger parties over smaller ones, and concentrated minorities over scattered ones.

In the Senate, each of Spain's 50 Provinces (except in the Canary and Balearic Islands) elects four Senators regardless of population. This results in under-representation for the large urban circumscriptions of Madrid and Barcelona , and over-representation for the conservative provinces of Castille and Galicia . Further, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands elect additional senators (since circumscriptions consist of the island governnments rather than the provinces), and the small autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla (Spanish enclaves on the coast of Morocco ) elect two Senators each. The islands and the enclaves are PP strongholds. The net effect of this system is to advantage the PP at the expense of the PSOE in the Senate. In the senate elections, voters can cast votes for up to three different people. Voters tend to cast all their votes for members of the same party, with the result that most provinces allocate 3 senators to the party with the strongest support, and 1 senator to the second party.

The Congress of Deputies must appoint the prime minister within two months of convening on April 2 . Although constitutionally the King, as head of state, submits a proposed prime minister to the approval of the Congress, in practice the King exercises no discretion. Each of the candidates, starting with the candidate of the largest party, comes before the Congress for two investiture votes, the first by majority and the second by plurality. Typically, the leader of the largest bloc becomes Prime Minister Of Spain , unless a Coalition of different parties has a majority of seats.

At the 2000 General Election , the People's Party won a majority of seats in Congress with 183 seats, the Socialists won 125, the Catalan nationalist party Convergence and Unity won 15 and the United Left (a coalition around the Communist Party) won 8. Minor parties won the remaining 19 seats.

Elections to Andalusia 's regional parliament were held on the same day. The PSOE retained office in these elections with an increased majority. (El Mundo - results)


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