| Olduvai Theory |
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The Olduvai theory states that the Industrial Civilization (using a special definition - see below) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. OLDUVAI GORGE From the paper, about the Olduvai Gorge: ...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'. A paper "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization" is published in The Social Contract, Vol. XVI, No. 2, Winter 2005-2006, pp. 134-144. A copy is available free at www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf. DETAILS OF THEORY This section is based on the paper "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge". Industrial Civilization The Industrial Civilization is defined in this paper as the time from when energy production per capita rises above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The 30% point is 3.32 boe/c/yr (barrels of Oil equivalent per capita per year). The peak is 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979 . Decline The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope. The rest is predicted to occur in two stages:
In terms of Energy , world oil production per capita also peaked in 1979 and has since fallen faster than world energy production per capita. The paper does not discuss how this shortfall is met. Total world oil production is predicted to peak in 2006 . FUTURE CIVILIZATIONS The paper contains a quote that Sir Fred Hoyle made in 1964 , stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the Coal , oil and "high-grade" Metallic Ore s gone, no species from Earth will ever reach the same level of Technology as we now enjoy. SEE ALSO
REFERENCE "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan (2000) Two of the references for the paper are other websites. The one that does not work is as follows: :Duncan, RC (2000a). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p.
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