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The Kardashev scale is a general method of classifying how Technologically advanced a Civilization is, first proposed in 1964 by the Russian Astronomer Nikolai Kardashev . It has three categories, based on the amount of usable Energy a civilization has at its disposal and increasing Logarithmically :
All such civilizations are purely hypothetical at this point. However, the Kardashev scale is of use to SETI researchers, Science Fiction authors, and Futurists as a theoretical framework. USAGE AND EXAMPLES Human Civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth . The current state of human Civilization has thus been named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan argued that they could easily be defined by Interpolating and Extrapolating the values given above. He calculated humanity's current Civilization to be 0.7. He used a power output of ~10TW and the formula : where ''K'' is a civilization's Kardashev rating and ''W'' is its power output in watts. Note that Roman numerals are still used for the integer part of a civilization's rating, while the fractional part is written in decimal. A possible method by which Earth can advance to a Type I Civilization is to begin the heavy use of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion , Wind Turbine s and Tidal Power to obtain the energy received by Earth 's Ocean s from the Sun . However there is no known way to successfully utilise the full potential of Earth 's Energy production without complete coating of the surface with man made structures. In the near and medium Future , this is an impossibility given humans' current lifestyle. We are, however, already "harnessing" Earth's production through our dependence upon Ecosystem Services , which may prove more efficient and sustainable than our own technology well into the future. If we choose never to fully substitute synthetics for Nature's Services on this planet, we may still achieve a Type I civilization by assuring that Earth's ecosystem services are maximally functional. A hypothetical Type II Civilization might employ a Dyson Sphere or other similar construct in order to utilize all of the energy output by a star, or perhaps more exotic means such as feeding stellar mass into a Black Hole to generate usable energy. Alternatively, it may occupy a large number of solar systems, absorbing a small but significant fraction of the output of each individual star. A Type III Civilization might use the same techniques employed by a Type II Civilization , applied to all of the stars of one or more galaxies individually, or perhaps might use other mechanisms not yet proposed. A common and recognisable example of a fictional Civilization capable of entering a Type III level is the Galactic Empire which features in many works of Space Opera . These civilizations utilise energy on a massive scale, generally being in between Type II and Type III. Possible timeline Humanity's current history indicates a timeline roughly shown here. These values are approximate, and include future predictions, from 0.8 onwards. They use Sagan's extrapolated version of the scale. Function as a teleology When transformed from a scale of energy use measurement into a predictive, or normative, description of desirable future technology the Kardashev scale becomes ". As a description of past and future human history it should be compared with the Marxist theory of Modes Of Production which makes similar assertions about combinations of technological and social structures, albeit across a shorter time span. WEAKNESS BY SUPPOSITION? It has been argued that, because we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior; thus, Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what will actually occur for an advanced civilization. This central argument is found within the book ''''A more controversial discussion can be found at 1 It is also possible that the unique conditions on Earth allow for specific technologies to develop which would take many times longer for a Civilization not having these conditions to achieve. The list of presumably unique conditions on Earth, and of related discoveries, is quite long. Some examples:
It is possible that the conditions for the creation of Hydrocarbon s, Coal , or Natural Gas would not exist on other planets. These Fuel s were essential for us to move past dependence upon Wood and animal based energy systems. Although Waterwheel , wind, and Solar Energy technologies existed, they were not developed further until suitable industrial techniques were found to produce better materials. These techniques consume massive amounts of energy, and therefore could not be powered by the unimproved technologies. A similar argument could be made that without Fossil Fuel technologies, more powerful technologies, such as Nuclear Reactor s, could not develop. Counter-argument: abundance of alternative sources Human perception has a natural bias towards the known Energy Development paths of Human civilization. It must also be noted that during both the 1973 Energy Crisis and the 1979 Energy Crisis highly industrialized societies continued to function; many moved towards developing alternative energy technologies on a massive scale under the assumption that these could provide the energy needed to continue Industrial and Commercial processes should Fossil Fuel supplies be compromised in some critical way. Given this development, it is possible that a society could develop without a stage where Fossil Fuel based energy production occurs. This version of Buckminster Fuller 's argument on Current Solar Income conforms with Paul Hawken 's idea of Restorative Economy , stating that Fossil Fuel based energy production is not essential nor desirable given the effects and alternatives. Also, it must be noted that the principles behind the Fuel Cell were discovered by Christian Friedrich Schönbein in 1838 , and were applied by Sir William Grove in 1843 , before there was widespread usage of Fossil Fuel s other than Coal . This raises the possibility that for alien civilizations Fuel Cell s could be used in place of Hydrocarbon Fuel s. It was only in the 1850s that the first industrial Petroleum extraction was started by Edwin Drake . CIVILIZATION IMPLICATIONS from The Coming Dark Age ]] There are many historical examples of Civilization s undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution and the Renaissance . The transition between Kardashev scale levels could potentially represent similarly dramatic periods of social upheaval, since they entail surpassing the hard limits of the resources available in a civilization's existing territory. A common speculation suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization's home planet. See Malthusian Catastrophe for an example of such a speculation. Some individuals have pointed to the faster upheaval of civilization periods as indicative of an upcoming change over to Type I civilization.2 Contact constraints For pre-Type I civilizations, it is costly to attempt contact with other more advanced civilizations because of the energy output needed. It has been predicted that in order to provide a reliable contact beacon of sufficient power to be noticeable to a Type II civilization, it must output such high energy levels that the cost would be between $1 trillion to $10 trillion in energy. The latter figure is the approximate GDP of the United States at the end of the 1990s through the beginning of the 21st Century .3 As a result it has been suggested that civilization must advance high into Type I before the energy required for reliable contact with other civilizations becomes sufficiently low that it does not drain a civilization's economic resources. Once civilizations have discovered each others' locations, however, the energy requirements for maintaining contact and exchanging information can be significantly reduced through the use of highly directional transmission technologies. In 1974 , the Arecibo Observatory transmitted a message toward the M13 Globular Cluster about 25,000 light-years away, for example, and the use of larger antennae or shorter wavelengths would allow transmissions of the same energy to be focused on even more remote targets. See SETI for extensive discussion of these possibilities. HYPOTHETICAL EXTENSIONS The exponential structure of the scale allows ready extrapolation to higher types. For example:
Fictional extensions These extensions are mainly used in science fiction. They are not "official" and may differ from source to source. For example, some authors would class a "Type V" civilization as Type IV instead. Further examples of extensions of the scale follow:
HYPOTHETICAL FUTURES Science fiction, having extended these values has also provided guides for possible future changes associated with the fractionalized version of the Kardashev scale. One possible future is presented here. The majority of the assumptions presented here are derived from scientific literature. Nikolai Kardashev's article On the Inevitability and the Possible Structures of Supercivilizations,4 (connection timed out as of last access date) where he explains that with increasing energy levels come increasing technology, decreasing cohesiveness, and varying likelihood of survival and contact, largely is a guide to this section. These civilizations and the changes within them are also referenced in Kardashev's papers Cosmology and Civilization5 (connection timed out as of last access date) and Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations.6 (connection timed out as of last access date) The last framework for these explanations can be found at ENERGY AND CULTURE.7 (connection timed out as of last access date) This article provides a much more detailed explanation than that which exists here. It presents a theoretical way to describe trends within more advanced civilizations, along with a specific description of different civilization types. This section takes the article as a guide work, but not as a source, for any such derivation would be plagiarization of the specific descriptions of the different types of civilizations. Type I Kaku quotes Dyson as calculating that Earth will achieve a Type I civilization around the year 2200 . This estimate is based on a simple extrapolation of the current development rate of Earth's energy budget. Type II According to Kaku, Kardaschev has estimated the development of such a civilization at the year 5200 . Type III According to Kaku, Kardaschev has estimated the development of such a civilization at the year 7800 . Type IV & V CURRENT VALUES Given past and projected values for planetary power production from the International Energy Agency , it can be shown that: LITERATURE DESCRIBING DIFFERENT KARDASHEV TYPES These categorizations are not firm, and are neither complete nor absolute. Most Science Fiction Space Opera writers do not specifically write their works with Kardashev classification in mind.
Matrioshka Brain s).
The Postcyberpunk graphic novel series '' Transmetropolitan '' portrays a near-future society which borders on Dystopia . Innovation has focused more on Genetic Engineering , Artificial Intelligence and Nanotechnology than space exploration. At one point, a video narrator explains, "We can make magic with engines smaller than a virus"—but in one city alone, a dozen people die every day by walking into the wrong district. Placing Earth on the Kardashev scale, the narrator concludes, "This remains a zero society." CONNECTIONS WITH SOCIOLOGY AND ANTHROPOLOGY Kardashev's theory can be viewed as the expansion of some s are determined by Technological System s'', wrote White in his book, echoing the earlier theory of Lewis Henry Morgan . As measure of society advancement he proposed the measure Energy Consumption of a given society (thus his theory is known as Energy Theory Of Cultural Evolution ). He differentiates between five stages of human development. In the first stage, people use energy of their own muscles. In the second stage, they use energy of Domesticated Animals . In the third stage, they use the energy of plants (which White refers to as Agricultural Revolution ). In the fourth stage, they learn to use the energy of natural resources - such as coal, oil and gas. Finally, in the fifth stage, they harness Nuclear Energy . White introduced a formula P=E×T, where E is a measure of energy consumed, and T is the measure of efficiency of technical factors utilising the energy. NOTES SEE ALSO
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