| Hindsight Bias |
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Information AboutHindsight Bias |
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| cognitive biases | |
| learning | |
| memory biases | |
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Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including Politics , Games and Medicine . Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as '' Vaticinium Ex Eventu ''. It has been shown that ''examining possible alternatives'' may reduce the effects of this bias. In Poland there is a proverb stating: "Mądry Polak po szkodzie" which means (literally) "A Pole is wise after damage ocurred". Which all in all is nothing but hindsight. CLASSIC STUDIES Paul Lazarus (1949) Lazarus gave participants interpretive statements that seemed like common sense immediately after they were read, but in actuality the opposite was true. Karl Teigen (1986) Teigen gave participants proverbs to evaluate. When participants were given the proverb ("Fear is stronger than love."), most students would rate it as true, and when given its opposite ("Love is stronger than fear.") most would rate that as true as well. CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS The hindsight bias can be conducive to arrogance, allowing one to overestimate their intellectual abilities. Some famous critics of the social sciences ( Cullen Murphy {Link without Title} ) claim social scientists find that, "...people's behavior is pretty much what you'd expect". This is the hindsight bias, and can potentially, once recognized, can make life much more fascinating, interesting, surprising, and allow one to be more open to their experiences. PHRASES The following common phrases are illustrative of this fallacy:
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